A practical way to break the big V in Hong Kong stocks
Angel of the Times hits a new analysis
The newcomers have been waiting for a long time, and the Angel of the Ages has finally launched a stock offering. I analyzed the fundamentals of this ticket in April. Invisible braces are a leading profiteering business. At the same time, the medical and aesthetic circuit is also very, very popular. Here's a video of the specific fundamental analysis that came out in April. I overlooked that I watched.
A high-growth leader on a high-growth circuit. This is the strongest logic for fighting a new game; there is no doubt that they should participate. The intensity of participation, however, depends on the valuation. The previous rumor had it that the price was 23 billion dollars, and the entrance fee was 27,000. I was so happy at the time. We had to start by doubling down, ah, to earn 30,000 in minutes.
As a result, the company was also a chicken thief. Seeing that the market reaction was so enthusiastic, it directly postponed the stock offering and then raised the price. It is now valued at HK$28.7 billion. Over 100 times the price-earnings ratio.
The market now has two main questions about the Angels of the Times. The first question is that they are 100 times PE, how much more can it increase?
Second question, this ticket is so hot, and there are so few items. The winning rate must be very low. Should I play?
For the first question. I personally think this thing could double on the first day it goes on sale. If you look at the A-share medical treatment next door, the valuation is almost 200 times faster, and Aimeike is more than 240 times higher. The long-term logic of the times is probably tougher.
In addition, market sentiment is very high, and there are very few products. As far as I know, many people keep fighting and not selling when they are ready to win the contract (not including me; of course, I'm only fighting the New Party). Large institutions that don't get the goods with a big vote are also potential buyers, which will create an extreme imbalance between supply and demand in the short term. Doubling on the first day is really no joke. Let's be conservative. That's an 80% increase, making a profit of 28,000 in one hand.
As for the second question, the winning rate is so low, should they play? And how to play. Let me start with the conclusion. I'm on my own; it's for reference only.
Yes, the winning rate of the era was very low, but no one else said that the first-hand rate was 0.5%. With such a high admission fee, 1 million people should be the limit. A total of 42,000 lots of goods. According to the formula we mentioned earlier, the first-hand order rate is about 1%. Of course, the details depend on how the bookkeeper allocates. Anyway, most of them don't just play one hand; Xiao Jia plays some in every position. There is no loss in any distribution in this way; card slot thinking is very important.
The winning rate is so low, why should I go to Stud? In my opinion, playing a new game is a numbers game. You must be careful and careful, with the aim of maximizing profits. I'll do the math specifically.
Even based on the most expensive first-hand finance calculation, the cost of a first-hand loan is about 120 yuan, but based on a 1% winning probability and 28,000 winning profit, the expected profit value for a one-hand loan is 28,000* 1% = 280 yuan. Excluding the cost of 120 yuan, the expected profit for a first-hand loan is 160 yuan. This sale is a good deal.
Another example is Otou. The visual winning rate is 25%, with an average of 1 out of 4. The cost of 4 biters is about 14,000, and the expected profit is 28,000 yuan. A single head still has an expected profit of 3,500 yuan. The deal was also barely profitable.
Of course, if you want to ask this kind of question, then I can only say do my best and listen to fate. All I can do is hope to maximize profits and leave the rest up to luck. In the long run, the probability is smooth.
If you're afraid to give someone a head, then don't hit it, because giving someone a head is indeed the greatest probability. Also, if you think the 80% increase is nonsense, then don't go up. Starting a new business is to earn money from recognition and capital allocation. If you know it right, you can make money or not lose money. If I'm wrong, the market will teach me too; it's that simple.
At least so far, my perception and allocation of funds have been quite reliable. In the past crash wave, Oeconsmoor's wave hit half of Smore. Jia He Genting focused on Genting; Fulu enjoyed the Mingyuan Cloud wave, which focused on Mingyuan Cloud; JD Health Bubble Mart hit the main car bubble.
Also, since I posted here, Bairong and Zhaoke have all avoided lightning. LianYirong, the only ones that make money, have seized and taken heavy positions, and recently JD Logistics and Times Angel have left their main forces to the times.
Unfortunately, the probability of a collision did not occur. Otherwise, the winning rate of the era could double, and profits would increase by more than 1 times. But JD doesn't make any profit, so it doesn't matter.
OK, let's not brag. Finally, the premise is that it is a good new stock that doesn't clash with the times. Looking at it now, there is probably an excellent animal husbandry industry that is going to crash. The imagination is average, so it's not very interesting. There is also a pretty good Keji Pharmaceutical. No news has come out; they probably don't want to crash with the times, so they won't consider the miracle factor of crashing into the car for the time being. Therefore, I personally gave up my purchasing power, and if I didn't win, I left it up to Tianyi.
The above is my new analysis of the Angel of the Times. Welcome to discuss it together. I will also publish new analysis on the big ticket later, as well as some content on new methodologies. Please check back often.
