Hello everyone, this week's Technical Tracking, let's analyze the company with the highest market cap in the US— $Apple (AAPL.US)$ . Apple's stock price hit a new historical high after three months, and the company is set to release Q4 earnings reports after the market closes on October 31, highlighting investors' high expectations for its performance.
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Hot events
On Monday, October 21, 2024, Apple's stock price hit a new all-time high, with a market cap reaching nearly $3.6 trillion. A week later, Apple will launch the official version of iOS 18.1. Since iOS 18.1 includes the Apple Intelligence feature, most Apple fans are quite looking forward to it.
Apple hopes that the AI feature can stimulate old iPhone users to upgrade to new devices, bringing a new super cycle of upgrades. Although Apple has been criticized for the slow development of AI technology, CEO Tim Cook clearly expressed Apple's attitude towards AI in eight words: 'Not first, but best.' He emphasized that although Apple is not among the first companies to do AI, it will provide AI in the best way for users, ultimately making the user experience 'completely different.'
On Wednesday, October 23, renowned Apple analyst Ming-Chi Kuo released news that iPhone 16 sales fell below expectations, stating that Apple has cut about 10 million orders for iPhone 16 from the fourth quarter of this year to the first half of next year, with non-Pro models being the main ones cut. Therefore, he lowered the production estimate for the second half of 2024 iPhone 16 from around 88 million units to about 84 million units.
Kuo pointed out that despite some optimism about Apple Intelligence boosting iPhone shipments, he believes that Apple cutting orders at this time may imply that the chances of these optimistic expectations being realized in the short term are not high.
Technical analysis
Trend analysis:
The daily chart shows that the apple stock price hit a historical high in mid-July 2024. Subsequently, the price retraced by more than 10% and has been in a consolidation phase for the past few months, forming a rising triangle pattern. However, as the price recently hit another all-time high, the resistance of the rising triangle was once broken, but this strength did not last long, and the price quickly fell back within the triangle.
Indicator interpretation:
● Apple's main moving averages are in a bullish alignment, with the short-term moving average above the long-term moving average, reflecting a good upward trend.
● The RSI indicator shows a slight bearish divergence, meaning that despite the stock price breaking to new highs, the RSI indicator did not exceed previous highs, implying some short-term downward pressure on the stock price.
● Observing the KDJ indicator, which is more responsive to stock price movements, the K-line briefly crossed above the overbought boundary of 80, then formed a death cross with the D-line, signaling a short-term bearish outlook for the stock price.
In general, despite Apple's stock price recently hitting new all-time highs and briefly breaking the consolidation range of the rising triangle, this momentum could not be sustained, indicating that the bullish determination is not strong enough before major events. Apple's stock price is now in a critical area, with the further contraction of the rising triangle range, it is expected that market volatility will significantly increase, and a breakout is imminent. The upcoming two major events, including Apple Intelligence and Apple's earnings reports release, will provide clearer clues to the market.
This content discusses technical analysis. Other methods, including fundamental analysis, may provide different perspectives. The examples provided are for illustrative purposes only and do not reflect expected results.
All investment involves risk, including the potential loss of principal, and no investment strategy can guarantee success.
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