Hello everyone, this week's "Technical Tracking" will analyze the leaders in the global semiconductor and artificial intelligence (AI) fields - nvidia $NVIDIA(NVDA.US)$ With the stimulus of strong third-quarter performance, nvidia's stock price once hit a record high. Does this indicate that the stock will continue to ride the waves?
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On November 21, 2024 (Wednesday), nvidia released its third-quarter report, with revenue and profits once again exceeding Wall Street's expectations, highlighting the strong demand for its ai chips in the market, driving the company's performance to continue to grow rapidly.
Looking ahead, nvidia expects fourth-quarter revenue to be around $37.5 billion (plus or minus 2%), higher than the Wall Street analyst's expectation of $370.8 billion. This performance guidance implies a year-on-year growth rate still as high as about 70%. By comparison, the growth rate for the same period last year was 265%.
On the first trading day after the earnings release, nvidia's stock price fluctuated significantly. The stock rose more than 4% in early trading, hitting a new historical high, but then fell more than 3% intraday, closing slightly up 0.5%. This volatile trend indicates that investors have very high expectations for this AI giant. Even an earnings report that exceeds expectations may not satisfy the appetites of some picky investors.
As the absolute leader in the current AI field, nvidia's stock price does not seem to be slowing down. From the beginning of the year to now, the stock has surged by nearly 200%, not inferior to the 240% increase for the entire previous year.
Goldman Sachs analyst Toshiya Hari has the following views on nvidia's earnings report: nvidia's Q3 performance exceeded expectations; Strong demand for the all-new Blackwell architecture ai chips; The previous generation Hopper architecture ai chips will continue to ship until 2025; nvidia still faces supply shortages; Maintains a 'buy' rating on the stock and includes it in the 'conviction buy list'.
Goldman Sachs analysts have an average target price of $165.18 for Nvidia, representing a 13% potential upside from Thursday's closing price. Currently, Wall Street is unanimously bullish on the stock. Data shows that out of 41 analysts covering Nvidia, only one has a 'hold' rating, while the other 40 have 'buy' ratings.
Technical analysis
Trend analysis:
The daily chart shows that Nvidia's stock price trend is very clear, running within an ascending channel for the past few months. Although the stock briefly fell below the lower boundary of the ascending channel in recent days, indicating some subtle changes in market sentiment, these short-term fluctuations are common in an upward trend and can be interpreted as profit-taking by some investors. It does not challenge the overall trend and also does not break the integrity of the ascending channel.
Indicator interpretation:
● The main moving averages of Nvidia's stock price show a bullish arrangement, with short-term moving averages all above long-term moving averages and trending upwards. This indicates a stable upward trend for the stock, suggesting strong upward momentum.
● The MACD indicator is above the zero axis but has shown a 'death cross,' indicating a potential pullback or consolidation in the short term despite the overall bullish trend.
● During a brief pullback, the stock exhibited a 'morning star' candlestick pattern. This pattern is a bullish reversal pattern, possibly indicating a bullish return and driving the stock price back into an upward trajectory.
● Focus on the potential support level near $131 below the stock price. This level was a high point on August 26th, with the stock price being resisted multiple times in this area. However, after breaking through, it has repeatedly set new historical highs, thus changing from a resistance to a support level.
Overall, although NVIDIA's stock price faces some short-term profit-taking pressure, the overall trend and upward channel remain relatively strong. The stock experienced violent fluctuations after the earnings release, indicating intense battles between long and short forces, which is a typical market reaction and overall neutral. In the short term, breaking through resistance at the $150 integer level may require further digestion of investors' profit-taking pressure.
This content discusses technical analysis. Other methods, including fundamental analysis, may provide different perspectives. The examples provided are for illustrative purposes only and do not reflect expected results.
All investment involves risk, including the potential loss of principal, and no investment strategy can guarantee success.
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