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[Brokerage Focus] Under the all-round stimulation of domestic demand policies, the prosperity of the Macau Gambling Sector is expected to further enhance.
Jinwu Financial News | CITIC SEC stated that the December Political Bureau meeting clarified the direction to boost Consumer spending. Considering that the core driving force for Chinese Consumers in high-end Commodity/service consumption stems more from the wealth effect, it is anticipated that, based on the assumption that Real Estate will gradually stop declining and stabilize, the growth rate of Resident consumption in first-tier cities will rebound first. In a horizontal comparison, the institution is Bullish on Macau as it celebrates its 25th anniversary, with Gambling as a "pro-cyclical + high-end Consumption" category, which may become a leading indicator for domestic demand recovery. In terms of Industry, the cumulative GGR data for January to November 2024 is expected to recover to 77% of the level in the same period of 2019.
[Brokerage Focus] Morgan Stanley: It is expected that total Gambling revenue in Macau will increase by 5% year-on-year in 2025, reaching 238 billion Macau dollars.
Jinwu Financial News | Morgan Stanley's recent Research Reports indicate that the Macau gambling industry is expected to achieve slight but stable growth by 2025. The report estimates that the total gambling revenue (GGR) in Macau will reach 238 billion patacas in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 5%, while the earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) is projected to reach 8 billion dollars, a year-on-year increase of 6%. Although market expectations for the gambling industry are relatively cautious, Morgan Stanley believes that as various gambling companies increase investments in non-gambling sectors and improve service quality, market share and profitability are expected to further enhance. Morgan Stanley believes that although the growth rate is relatively mild.
Citigroup maintains its forecast for Macau's gambling revenue in December at 18.5 billion Macau Patacas.
Citibank released a Research Report stating that the total Gambling revenue in Macau for the first 15 days of December is expected to reach approximately 8.6 billion Macau patacas. From December 9 to 15, the average daily Gambling revenue was about 0.579 billion Macau patacas, an increase of about 3% compared to approximately 0.563 billion Macau patacas in the first 8 days of the month, believed to be due to an improvement in the retention rate of VIP customers. With the upcoming Christmas and New Year's Eve peak holiday season, the Macau Tourism Board expects that the average hotel occupancy rate during the holiday period will remain at a high level, compared to approximately 90% last week. Citibank indicated that considering the strong lineup of concerts happening in Macau in late December, the expectation is set for December 20.
Hong Kong stock market afternoon review | The three major Indexes have all fallen, with the technology Index dropping by 0.49%; the 5G Sector and Lithium Battery Sector show strength against the trend, ZTE soaring over 7%, and BYD shares rising over 2%.
Network Technology stocks fell, with Alibaba-W dropping 1.48% and JD-SW declining 1.25%; Building Materials stocks generally declined, with CHINA TIANRUI falling 9.09% and CONCH CEMENT down 2.79%; Hong Kong Retail Stocks rose, with BONJOUR HOLD decreasing 4.74% and PRADA increasing 2.66%.
The Macau Tourism Board plans to continue offering ticket discounts with Aviation next year.
According to an article from Macau Radio, the director of the Macao Tourism Bureau, Misty Man, indicated that starting this year, the authorities will collaborate with Aviation to launch a ticket discount program primarily focused on international routes, with a total budget of 0.1 billion Macanese patacas, and there is currently no final reimbursement amount available. Misty Man revealed that the Macao Tourism Bureau plans to continue its collaboration with Aviation next year, but there is no updated proposal at the moment, which means it will take some time to finalize the cooperative elements that can be developed, although the collaboration will likely continue to involve the promotion of ticket discounts.
The Macao Tourism Board expects a favorable hotel occupancy rate during the Christmas to New Year holiday period and is confident of reaching the target of 33 million visitors to Macao.
The Director of the Macau Tourism Bureau, Maria Helena de Senna Fernandes, stated yesterday (15th) during an event that many activities will be held in Macau around Christmas, including fireworks to celebrate the return and outdoor performance area warm-up concerts, which will help attract different tourists to visit Macau to celebrate Christmas and New Year. With recent high hotel occupancy rates, it is expected that hotel occupancy during the Christmas to New Year holiday will be relatively ideal. Maria Helena reiterated confidence in achieving the target of 33 million visitors to Macau this year, hoping to exceed the target of 34 million. Among them, international visitors have already registered over 2 million. Maria Helena also expressed satisfaction with this year's results.
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