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Daily real estate industry updates summary (2024-11-21)
Christopher Hui, the Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury of Hong Kong, proposed the second reading of the Stamp Duty (Amendment) Bill 2024 at the Legislative Council meeting. He suggested exempting stamp duty on the purchase and sale of real estate investment trusts to enhance the competitiveness of Hong Kong's property trust funds and support further market development.
The unchanged LPR in November meets market expectations. Industry insiders do not rule out the possibility of further interest rate cuts next year along with the reverse repurchase rate.
① By the end of the year, the economic running is expected to continue its upward trend, with policy interest rates likely to remain stable and LPR quote also expected to stay unchanged. ② There is a high possibility of further reductions in deposit rates in the future, coupled with the issuance of special treasury bonds to support large state-owned commercial banks in replenishing their core tier one capital, which is expected to gradually alleviate the interest spread and operational pressure for commercial banks. It is possible that next year the LPR quote may be accompanied by further interest rate cuts on reverse repurchase agreements.
Fitch Ratings' outlook on the real estate development industry for 2025 is 'low economic stability'.
Credit rating agency Moody's pointed out that the outlook for the real estate development industry next year is "low recession stability". The bank indicated that the mainland real estate industry has shown a significant market recovery in the short term under the theme of "stabilization after the decline", but long-term stability still requires a combination of policies for lasting effects. Under a neutral scenario, it is expected that in the fourth quarter of 2025, industry sales will gradually stabilize and rebound, and the year-on-year decline is expected to narrow to within 5%; under an optimistic scenario, it is expected that the sales area in 2025 may return to a year-on-year balance. Moody's stated that in the first three quarters of this year, in a more complex and challenging economic environment, the real estate policy effectiveness was insufficient, the decline in sales narrowed but did not stabilize by the end of September.
According to the Finger Research Institute, in October, the average price of second-hand residences in 100 cities dropped by 7.27% compared to the same period last year.
According to data monitoring by the China Index Academy, in October 2024, the average price of second-hand residences in 100 cities was 14,360 yuan per square meter, a month-on-month decrease of 0.60%, narrowing the decline by 0.10 percentage points compared to September; a year-on-year decrease of 7.27%.
Express News | The one-year and five-year LPR remain unchanged.
Insider Stock Buying Reaches CN¥12.2m On China Jinmao Holdings Group
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