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【Brokerage Focus】HTSC: The coal market supply and demand will be under pressure in 2025, and the potential reduction trend of imported coal is expected to stabilize coal prices.
Jinwu Financial News | HTSC released a research report indicating that the coal market in 2025 will face supply and demand pressure, with imported coal becoming a key marginal variable to regulate domestic coal supply and demand. After the holiday, the coal market's strong supply and weak demand pattern intensifies, with the pace of demand recovery lower than expected, while the supply side remains ample. In January and February 2025, thermal power generation declined by 5.8% year-on-year, while domestic coal production and imports grew by 7.7% and 2.1%, respectively. Northern port inventories continue to rise, reaching a maximum of 31.66 million tons, and the price of 5,500 kcal thermal coal at the port has dropped since the beginning of the year.
China Shenhua Energy (601088): The Transportation Sector partially offsets the decline in coal prices, with stable performance and expected dividends.
Event description: The company released the annual report for 2024: During the reporting period, the company achieved revenue of 338.375 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.4%; net income attributable to shareholders was 58.671 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.7%; net income attributable to shareholders after deducting non-recurring items.
China Securities Co.,Ltd.: The price of Thermal Coal may maintain a downward trend, and the value of green electricity environmental benefits is expected to be realized more quickly.
China Securities Co.,Ltd. released a research report stating that overall, under the stable growth trend of raw coal production, Thermal Coal prices are expected to maintain a downward trend, and the profitability of thermal power is expected to be sustained.
Statistics on Capital Trend of Hong Kong Stock Connect (T+2) | March 27
Capital Trend of Hong Kong Stock Connect | March 27.
Express News | Recently, Ruizhong Insurance purchased 1 million shares of China Shenhua Energy Listed in Hong Kong at an average price of HKD 31.9153 per share.
Goldman Sachs: Downgraded China Shenhua Energy's earnings forecast reflects weak Coal and coal-fired power prices, lowering the Target Price to HKD 29.5.
Goldman Sachs released a Research Report stating that China Shenhua Energy (01088) surpassed the bank and market expectations for last year's Net income, with a dividend of 2.26 RMB per share and a payout ratio of 72% calculated under international financial reporting standards, higher than the 70% in 2023. The bank lowered its profit forecasts for Shenhua for this year and next year by 5% to 7%, reflecting lower assumptions for Coal prices and weaker coal-electricity prices, partially offset by better-than-expected cost control. The bank expects strong operating Cash flow and a continuously strong balance sheet will support Shenhua in maintaining a 70% payout ratio, corresponding to a yield of 7.2 cents. The bank maintains a "Neutral" rating on Shenhua, with a target.
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