Daily real estate industry dynamics summary (2024-09-20)
Peking Municipal Committee has issued the implementation opinions on carrying out the "Decision of the CPC Central Committee on Further Comprehensive Deepening of Reform and Advancing the Chinese-style Modernization", which mentions improving the housing system with both renting and purchasing. Accelerate the establishment of a new model for real estate development that is in line with the characteristics of the capital, increase the construction and supply of affordable housing, and meet the rigid housing needs of working-class groups. Improve the policy mechanisms to support the diverse improvement of housing needs for urban and rural residents, and leverage the role of housing provident fund in housing security. Optimize real estate policies, timely abolish the standards for ordinary and non-ordinary residences, optimize the rules for commodity residential land transactions, reform the financing methods for real estate development, and the pre-sale system of commodity houses. (Beijing Daily)
Peking issues optimized real estate policies, industry insiders: promoting the release of demand for improved housing.
On September 20th, the Beijing Municipal Committee of the Communist Party of China issued the implementation opinions on implementing the decision of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China on further comprehensively deepening reforms and promoting the modernization of China.
UBS Group: It is expected that the remaining time of the year, Hong Kong property prices will generally stabilize or slightly rebound.
UBS Group issued a research report stating that the USA has officially entered an interest rate cut cycle. Consequently, UBS Group announced that it will follow suit and decrease the best rate for Hong Kong dollars by 25 basis points, unexpectedly becoming a "Mid-Autumn Festival gift" to the Hong Kong property market and bringing bullish news. The interest rate for new residential mortgages will be lowered from 4.125% to 3.88%, which will help narrow the negative interest rate gap with rental return on investment.
PBOC: The market loan quote interest rates for one-year and five-year terms in September remain unchanged.
The People's Bank of China announced that the one-year loan market quotation rate (LPR) in September remained unchanged at 3.35%; the five-year loan market quotation rate (LPR) remained unchanged at 3.85%.
The Kunming government supports the use of housing provident fund for the down payment of newly built commodity housing in "Nei Fang".
The WeChat public account "Kunming Housing Fund" issued a notice on supporting the withdrawal of housing provident fund for the payment of down payment for purchasing newly built commodity housing, reducing the pressure of residents' down payment funds. The housing provident fund withdrawn by depositing employees for application will be directly transferred to the designated account of the real estate development enterprise specified in the commercial housing purchase and sale contract.
Express News | Peking: Optimize real estate policies and timely cancel the standards for ordinary and non-ordinary residences.
What is the impact of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut on the real estate market? Experts say that the probability of a domestic LPR cut has increased.
According to Dahacai Lifa, on September 18, the Federal Reserve implemented its first interest rate cut in four years, with a magnitude of 50 basis points. Many experts believe that this policy will have a positive impact on China's monetary policy, macroeconomics, and indirectly on the real estate market in our country, such as an increased possibility of further reduction in mortgage loan rates, but the overall impact is limited.
China Finger Research Institute: M&A activity in the real estate industry cooled off in August, and the use of existing properties for insurance revitalized the stock assets.
According to the monitoring of China Real Estate Research Institute, the real estate industry conducted a total of 9 M&A transactions in August 2024, a decrease of 7 transactions compared to the previous month.
After the Fed cuts interest rates, multiple real estate stocks have strengthened. Will mortgage rates be further lowered?
①Affected by the bullish factors of the Fed's interest rate cut, today including Vanke, Evergrande, Sunac, Shimao Group, Jianfa International and other real estate stocks showed strength; ② "The Fed's interest rate cut this time is expected to accelerate the adjustments of the reduction of reserve requirement ratio and interest rates in China in the future, which will help further reduce the cost of corporate financing. For the real estate market, the LPR of over 5 years is expected to be further lowered, and the cost of residents' house purchase may also decrease accordingly."
Daily Real Estate Industry News Summary (2024-09-19)
Experts: There is still room for further adjustments in various regions to reduce mortgage rates, lower transaction taxes and fees.
Express News | Report: The quote for September LPR is about to be released, and there is a possibility of changes in the interest rate tomorrow.
In Lyon's "Great Banking", financial experts expect that the mainland may soon cut interest rates. If the policy effectively eases the net interest margin losses, there is a preference for China Construction Bank (00939.HK) and Ping An Bank (03968.HK).
Lyon's report states that the banking industry in China has not yet seen the light at the end of the tunnel. Last week, the bank met with banking and financial industry experts in four cities in mainland China and indicated that there was no significant improvement in related businesses, loan demand remained weak, the quality of retail assets may deteriorate further, and there were no signs of a peak. However, the maturity of time deposits and lower interest rates will bring encouraging performance to net interest margin, but there is still the risk of potential lowering of mortgage loan rates that has not been realized. Bankers have not found any significant catalysts that can change the situation of "economic weakness, weak demand", and it is estimated that next year may be another year of soft loan growth for the bank.
Hong Kong stock concept tracking | The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 50 basis points, exceeding expectations. Slight improvement in domestic real estate data (with concept stocks).
Citic Securities: The 50bps rate cut by the Fed this time is a preemptive rate cut with a forceful early move.
August Housing Starts, Permits Rise More Than Expected
Have Powerlong Real Estate Holdings Insiders Been Selling Stock?
Abnormal movement report | Domestic real estate and property management stocks rebounded, Sino-Ocean Group rose more than 7%, China Vanke rose 2.34%.
Mainland real estate and property management stocks rebounded today, as of the time of publication, Sino-Ocean Group (03377) rose by 7.03%, to HKD 0.198; cifi hold gp (00884) rose by 4.11%, to HKD 0.228; Yuexiu Services (06626) rose by 2.85%, to HKD 3.25.
In the first eight months of the mainland, national real estate development investment decreased by 10.2% annually.
The National Bureau of Statistics announced that the national real estate development investment in the first eight months of this year was 6928.4 billion yuan (the same below), a year-on-year decrease of 10.2% (calculated on a comparable basis); among them, residential investment was 5262.7 billion yuan, a decrease of 10.5%. In the first eight months, the construction area of real estate development enterprises was 7094.2 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 12%. Among them, the construction area of residential buildings was 4960.52 million square meters, a decrease of 12.6%. The newly-started construction area of houses was 494.65 million square meters, a decrease of 22.5%. Among them, the newly-started construction area of residential buildings was 359.09 million square meters, a decrease of 23.0%.
The price of second-hand homes in first-tier cities is declining, while the demand for home purchases remains weak.
The National Bureau of Statistics released housing price data for August, and the relevant data still showed a downward trend.
Express News | The National Bureau of Statistics: The current real estate market continues to be in a state of adjustment.
Express News | The National Bureau of Statistics: From January to August, the national real estate development investment was 6,928.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 10.2%.
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