02057 ZTO EXPRESS-W
- 151.900
- -4.900-3.13%
ZTO EXPRESS-W News
zto express-W (02057.HK): operation global strategy adjustment, prioritizing market share.
Investment highlights: zto express released its Q3 2024 report. In the third quarter, the company achieved revenue of 10.675 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.6%; adjusted net income of 2.39 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.0%. The third quarter is a low season.
Returns At ZTO Express (Cayman) (NYSE:ZTO) Are On The Way Up
zto express - W (2057.HK): adhering to high-quality development, Q3 single ticket operating profit stabilizes.
Event: The company released the unaudited financial performance announcement for the third quarter of 2024, with a courier business volume of 8.723 billion pieces in Q3 24, a year-on-year increase of 15.9%; net income adjusted to 2.387 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.0%.
HSBC Research lowers the target price of zto express (02057.HK) to 218 yuan and reduces the earnings forecast per share.
HSBC Research published a report indicating that zto express (02057.HK) had an 18% increase in EBIT in the third quarter compared to the same period last year, due to improved product mix; the average selling price grew by 2.6%, while peers declined; unit costs remained flat. The report indicated that zto express has lowered its full-year package volume guidance but plans to regain market share by 2025. The bank has downgraded the earnings per share forecasts for 2024 to 2026 by 3% to 5%; it reiterated the 'buy' rating but reduced the target price from $29 to $28. The target price for the shares listed in hong kong has been lowered from 226 HKD to 218 HKD. HSBC Research will continue to evaluate zto express from 2024 to 202.
【Brokerage Focus】jpmorgan points out that the trend of reverse logistics is becoming increasingly important and the competitive landscape in the logistics field is being reshaped.
JPMorgan released a research report, stating that during the november 11 shopping festival-related period, China's express parcel volume reached a record high, with a year-on-year growth of 25%, while pricing trends remained stable. The e-commerce market is entering a new phase, with competition expected to be more moderate by 2025. Traditional platforms like Taobao / Tmall and jd.com maintain stable market positions, while pdd holdings continues to grow by offering high-cost-effective commodities. The report further points out that data for October shows that e-commerce growth benefited from stimulus policies and an early start to november 11 shopping festival, with online retail sales increasing by 10% year-on-year and home appliance sales increasing by 39%. Industry data shows parcel volumes, physical commodities.
Citi lowered zto express (ZTO.US) target price to $24.2, shifting focus to market share.
Citibank published a report noting that zto express (02057.HK) had weaker than expected parcel volume performance at the beginning of the year, primarily due to e-commerce customers being more sensitive to pricing than anticipated and an increased proportion of low stock price parcels. The company will focus more on market share and parcel volume growth in 2025, intending to achieve this by adopting a more flexible end pricing policy and simplifying network policies, while striving to maintain relatively stable unit profitability. At the same time, management indicated that the share buyback and dividend distribution will continue. The bank expects zto express's fourth quarter non-GAAP net profit to grow by 21% year-on-year, by enhancing product average price and unit.
Hong Kong stock concept tracking | Promoting stable growth in foreign trade releases another "combination punch", the cross-border e-commerce industry welcomes bullish news (including concept stocks).
On November 21, the Ministry of Commerce issued a notice on several policy measures to promote stable growth of foreign trade. It pointed out the need to strengthen financing support for foreign trade enterprises.
ZTO Express (Cayman), Inc. Class A (2057) Receives a Buy From Jefferies
U.S. Stock Market Nuggets | Will the "cryptos czar" appear? MSTR's market cap surpasses the trillion-dollar mark, soaring 650% this year; excellent stocks are having a blast! Home retail giant WSM skyrockets over 27% overnight.
Included in the S&P MidCap 400 Index! Global manufacturing giant Flex Ltd. surged nearly 80% this year, with overnight stock prices hitting a new high.
ZTO Express (Cayman) Third Quarter 2024 Earnings: Beats Expectations
U.S. stock market anomaly | zto express rose nearly 3% pre-market, third-quarter revenue exceeded 10 billion, a year-on-year increase of 17.6%.
格隆汇November 21st | ZTO Express (ZTO.US) pre-market up nearly 3%, at $20.58. In terms of news, ZTO Express achieved third-quarter revenue of 10.675 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.6%; gross profit was 3.3348 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23.2%; net income was 2.379 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.3%. During the period, the parcel volume reached 8.723 billion pieces, a year-on-year increase of 15.9%. Bank of America Securities issued research reports, reaffirming a "buy" rating on ZTO Express, pointing out that they believe the recent weakness in the stock price is due to the slowdown in year-on-year growth in courier volume since the fourth quarter of this year.
Major bank rating | Daiwa: Downgrades zto express target price to HKD 195, reiterates "buy" rating.
Daiwa published research reports indicating that ZTO Express has lowered its full-year parcel volume growth guidance for this year, from between 15% to 18% to between 11.6% to 12.3%, believed to be due to the strong growth of low stock price parcels. Daiwa believes that ZTO's market share declined year-on-year in the previous quarter, coupled with abundant capacity. Looking forward to next year, they can focus more on increasing parcel volume and market share, combined with expected cost reductions, forecasting an annual profit growth rate of more than ten percentage points from 2025 to 2026. Daiwa has lowered the listed in Hong Kong target price of ZTO from 210 Hong Kong dollars to 195 Hong Kong dollars, reiterated a "buy" rating, and maintained the full-year profit target of 102.8 for this year.
zto express-W (2057.HK): 3Q profit stable year-on-year, and market share increased quarter-on-quarter.
zto express released 3Q24 performance: 1) Revenue increased by +17.6%/-0.5% to 10.7 billion yuan on a year-on-year basis; 2) Net profit attributable to owners of the parent company increased by +2.2%/-8.3% to 2.4 billion yuan (slightly lower than our forecast
Major bank ratings｜Citi International: Lowered zto express target price to HKD 271, still bullish on profit growth strategy.
Galaxia Holdings on November 21st | CICC International released research reports, maintaining a "buy" rating on zto express, pointing out that its EBIT in the third quarter increased by 17% year-on-year to 2.8 billion yuan, in line with expectations. The quarterly benchmark net income only increased by 1% year-on-year to 2.46 billion yuan, believed to be due to a one-time tax rebate in the third quarter of last year. Under industry price competition, the management lowered the full-year parcel growth guidance for this year. Due to the decrease in parcel volume and unit profit, CICC International correspondingly reduced its profit forecast for 2024 to 2026 by 5% to 9%, but emphasized bullish on zto express's profit growth strategy and its strong free cash flow.
【Brokerage Focus】CITIC International has reduced zto express (02057) to HKD 271, but still holds a positive view on the profit-first strategy.
Golden Ways Financial News | Zhongxin International issued a research report, stating that zto express (02057) pretax profit increased by 17% year-on-year to 2.8 billion yuan, in line with the bank's expectations. Although the net income in 3Q24 only increased by 1% year-on-year to 2.46 billion yuan, this was mainly due to the high base caused by a one-time tax rebate in 3Q23. Despite price competition in the industry, zto express's gross profit per single ticket in 3Q24 still increased by 6.5% year-on-year to 0.38 yuan per ticket. ZTO has lowered its full-year parcel volume growth guidance to 11.6-12.3% (compared to 15-18% in August), indicating a 7% growth in 4Q24.
"Citigroup" has lowered zto express (ZTO.US) target price to 26.9 USD, with market share becoming the focus again next year.
Morgan Stanley issued a research report indicating that zto express (02057.HK)(ZTO.US) will refocus its operational strategy on increasing market share. The development direction is appropriate, and expected shareholder returns such as cash dividends and share buybacks should support the valuation. The risk-return profile is viewed as positive, maintaining an 'overweight' rating on US stocks. Morgan Stanley expects zto express to adopt a more aggressive pricing strategy next year, while improvements in retail trade profitability and cost efficiency are believed to offset related negative impacts, predicting that express delivery volume may grow by 17% year-on-year next year. Morgan Stanley has raised the forecast for zto's non-GAAP net profit this year.
Bank of America Securities lowered the target price for zto express (ZTO.US) to $26.3, as price competition continues.
Bank of America Securities published a research report, reiterating a 'buy' rating for zto express (02057.HK) (ZTO.US), indicating that the recent weak stock price of zto express is believed to be due to the slowdown in year-on-year express volume growth since the fourth quarter of this year, with an increase of about 11% in October, which has dropped to about 5% from November to now. Management expressed that the decline in market share this year was larger than expected and plans to focus on regaining market share in the future. Bank of America believes this suggests that a price war in the express industry may be inevitable in 2025, which will have a negative impact on the entire industry, but it is expected that zto express's unit profits will be higher than its peers, providing an advantage when market competition becomes fierce.
Dah Sing lowers zto express (02057.HK) target price to 195 yuan as management reduces this year's parcel volume target
Daiwa released research reports indicating that ZTO Express-W (02057.HK) has lowered its full-year parcel volume growth guidance for this year from between 15% and 18% to between 11.6% and 12.3%, believed to be due to strong growth in low-priced parcels. Daiwa believes that ZTO's market share declined year-on-year in the previous quarter, coupled with sufficient capacity. Looking ahead to next year, it can focus more on increasing parcel volume and market share, along with expected cost reductions. It is predicted that the annual profit growth rate from 2025 to 2026 can reach double-digit percentages. Daiwa has lowered ZTO's H-share target price from 210 Hong Kong dollars to 195 Hong Kong dollars, reiterating a "buy" rating, maintaining today.
CICC lowered zto express (02057.HK) target price to 188.28 yuan, parcel volume growth lagging expectations.
Citi published a report stating that zto express (02057.HK) experienced only a 16% year-on-year increase in parcel volume in the third quarter, continuing to fall short of the overall market's 20% growth and expectations. The management's goal is to increase market share while maintaining reasonable profits next year. The firm believes this is the right decision, as economies of scale remain the most important element for logistics companies. Citi noted that while optimistic about the company's ability to maintain stable unit profits in the fourth quarter, intense market competition has led to a reduction in the company's earnings per share forecasts for 2024, 2025, and 2026 by 7.9%, 13.5%, and 19.1% respectively, while the target price has been reduced from 22.
citic sec: The resilience and increased penetration of consumer spending accelerate the growth of e-commerce in the usa. Remain bullish on leading e-commerce companies.
In Q2 2024, the total e-commerce sales in the usa reached 282.3 billion dollars (up 6.6% year-on-year), with a penetration rate of 19.6% (up 1.8 percentage points year-on-year), of which csi sws food & beverage, groceries, electronics and home appliances, and non-store retailers grew by 8.0%/ 12.7%/ 7.9%/ 7.2% year-on-year.
Analysis
Price Target
No Data
No Data