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Under the three major pressures of costs, supply, and demand, when will the paper industry Sector "hit bottom and rebound"?
The "other side" of the continuous decline in the paper Sector in recent days is that many cardboard factories have started to raise prices as a "self-rescue" measure.
Major rating|Citi: Downgrades ND PAPER's Target Price to HKD 3.7, maintaining a "Neutral" rating.
Gelonghui, December 11 | Citigroup issued a report indicating that the latest stimulus measures announced by the mainland have not yet improved ND PAPER's profitability. Therefore, the bank maintains its earnings forecast for ND PAPER but lowers its Target Price from 4.3 HKD to 3.7 HKD, corresponding to a projected price-to-book ratio of 0.35 times this year, due to the limited opportunities for profit improvement in the current environment. Additionally, the bank expects that the four major paper companies in the mainland will continue to expand production capacity despite lower profitability, as companies are more likely to obtain licenses in provinces or cities in China given the decline in government fiscal revenue. The bank maintains a "neutral" rating on ND PAPER and LEE & MAN PAPER.
Hong Kong stock industry concept tracking | Paper companies have set off a new round of price increases, signaling the industry's bottoming out and rebound (with concept stocks).
Since October, many papermaking companies have carried out one or more rounds of price increases. Recently, more companies have announced price adjustment plans for their multiple facilities, leading to paper enterprises in various regions following suit. The entire papermaking industry has ignited a new wave of price hikes.
Citigroup: maintains a "neutral" rating on nd paper, with the target price raised to 4.3 Hong Kong dollars.
Citigroup released a research report stating that considering the consumer recovery under stimulus policies, especially the significant growth in the household appliance industry, they slightly raised the profit forecast for ND Paper (02689) for the fiscal years 2025 to 2026 by 6%, with the target price increased to 4.3 Hong Kong dollars, maintaining a "neutral" rating, and maintaining a "sell" rating for Lee & Man Paper (02314). The report mentioned that although ND Paper turned losses into profits by the end of June 2024 fiscal year, with a net profit of 0.818 billion Chinese yuan, a significant improvement from the 2.399 billion Chinese yuan loss in the 2023 fiscal year, it is still expected that ND Paper will achieve profitability at the beginning of the 2025 fiscal year.
Dah Sing raises the target price of nd paper (02689.HK) to 4.3 yuan. Rating remains 'Neutral'.
Citigroup's research report stated that, although ND Paper (02689.HK) has turned losses into profits as of the end of June 2024 fiscal year, recording a net profit of 0.818 billion Chinese yuan, a significant improvement from a loss of 2.399 billion Chinese yuan in the 2023 fiscal year, it is still expected that ND Paper's profit level will remain low at the beginning of the 2025 fiscal year, mainly due to industry oversupply and continued weak end demand. The bank has revised down ND Paper's 2025 fiscal year profit forecast by 9% to 1.181 billion Chinese yuan, with an average monthly profit of around 98 million Chinese yuan, slightly higher than the second half of 2024 fiscal year's 86
How is the outlook for the papermaking peak season? Manufacturers are cautiously optimistic, with cost control still being the main theme|Industry News
1. The papermaking peak season has started, and many paper mills hold cautious optimism expectations; 2. The industry was flat in the first three quarters, and the cost advantages of leading paper enterprises are showing; 3. There are many factors causing differences in gross profit of paper enterprises, with inventory management being the ****e pressure of rising paper prices in Q4 still exists, and paper enterprises still need to compete in cost control.
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