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HSBC Research has lowered the Target Price of COUNTRY GARDEN (02007.HK) to 0.4 yuan and prefers CHINA RES MIXC (01209.HK) and KE Holdings (BEKE.US).
HSBC Research published a report indicating that various financially strained real estate developers are making progress in the second round of debt restructuring. The bank maintains that debt restructuring is an emerging positive catalyst, forecasting that the onshore bond restructuring of Sunac (01918.HK), the offshore bond restructuring approval of COUNTRY GARDEN (02007.HK), and the management restructuring of Vanke (02202.HK) have all become key factors in stabilizing market sentiment, reflecting that collaborative efforts to resolve complex debt issues are crucial.
According to CRIC: In January, the top 50 Property Service companies added contract area of approximately 78.08 million square meters, and the leading companies continue to expand their scale.
In terms of urban service projects, CHINA RES MIXC became the champion of contract amounts for urban service projects in January with a contract value of 83.95 million yuan.
BofA Securities has generally lowered the Target Price for property management stocks, maintaining a "Buy" rating for CHINA RES MIXC (01209.HK) and POLY PPT SER (06049.HK).
Merrill Lynch has published a report, anticipating that Mainland Property Management stocks will benefit from any real estate market stimulus policies, but in the short term, there may be a lack of catalysts in the Industry. On the other hand, the bank believes that management fee collection and pricing pressure could pose long-term concerns. Excluding Bifang (06098.HK), the Sector's valuation is equivalent to a projected PE of 11 times this year, compared to a 10% profit growth forecast and a dividend yield of over 4% for 2024. Based on the overall slowdown in Industry growth, the bank prefers stocks with solid fundamentals and more shareholder-friendly return policies, thus maintaining its stance on POLY PPT SER (06049.HK) and CHINA RES MIXC (01209.
[Brokerage Focus] CIB International expects the growth rate of new home sales in mainland China to decline by 11% this year, while the transaction amount of second-hand houses is expected to increase by 5%.
Goldengates Financial News | According to a research report from CMB International, the contract sales amount of the top 10 real estate companies in the mainland fell by 1.5% year-on-year in January, with a reduction in new supply. The firm expects the annual growth rate of new home sales to decline by 11% to 7 trillion yuan in 2025, while the transaction amount of second-hand homes is expected to increase by 5% to reach 7.5 trillion yuan, officially surpassing new homes to become the dominant market in the Industry. In terms of stock selection, the firm suggests focusing on symbols with strong business operation capabilities such as CHINA RES LAND (01109) and LONGFOR GROUP (00960), as development continues to shrink, and the Retail Trade business has better risk resilience. When signs of economic stabilization appear, the Retail Trade business performs better than development.
UBS Group's investment ratings and Target Price for property and property management stocks (table).
UBS Group published a research report, listing the latest investment ratings and target prices for domestic property management stocks and related service providers as follows: Stock | Investment Rating | Target Price (HKD) CHINA RES LAND (01109.HK) | Buy | 42 HKD -> 37 HKD CHINA OVERSEAS (00688.HK) | Neutral | 12.5 HKD LONGFOR GROUP (00960.HK) | Neutral | 11 HKD -> 10.3 HKD CHINA VANKE (02202.HK) | Sell | 2.6 HKD C&D INTL GROUP (01908.HK) | Neutral |
UBS Group expects that last year's profitability in the domestic real estate and property management sectors still faces pressure, lowering the Target Price for Sunac (01109.HK), Longfor (00960.HK), and KE Holdings (02423.HK).
UBS Group released Research Reports, predicting that in 2024, profits for mainland Real Estate Developers will decline by 27% year-on-year, worsening from a 22% drop projected for the first half of 2024, mainly affected by the decline in mainland housing prices in the third quarter of last year. Specifically, the bank predicts that the smallest profit decline last year will be for CHINA RES LAND (01109.HK), estimated to drop 2% year-on-year, followed by GREENTOWN CHINA (03900.HK), YUEXIU PROPERTY (00123.HK), China Overseas (00688.HK), and Longfor (00960.HK), with profit decline forecasts of 8% and 18% respectively.