The confrontation between the Federal Reserve and the Bonds market: how to avoid a clash.

The president of Bianco Research stated: "The bond market is telling the Federal Reserve that its policy is wrong."

Golden10 DataDec 27 21:47

Year-end review of US debt: Will 2024 be full of twists and turns for the "anchor of Global asset pricing"? Will 2025 be wilder than 2023?

The dreaded "term premium" that sends shivers through the financial markets is making a comeback, and the "anchor of Global Asset pricing" is brewing a wave of even wilder growth than the surge of over 5% seen in 2023.

Zhitong FinanceDec 26 18:28

Can U.S. stocks continue to rise? Research institutions say it depends on the performance of U.S. bonds and the dollar.

Tom Essaye, the founder of Sevens Report Research, pointed out in this week's report that based on recent trading levels, the dollar currently poses only a "slight" resistance to U.S. stocks, while the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield presents a "moderate" resistance; if the dollar and bond yields continue to rise from now on, it will cause greater trouble for U.S. stocks.

cls.cnDec 26 09:41

Morgan Stanley selected the "Top 10 Surprises for 2025": The depreciation of the dollar ranks first.

Morgan Stanley believes that the fiscal deficit in the USA is expected to decrease next year, while the fiscal deficits in China and Germany are likely to increase, which may lead to a convergence of interest rates between the USA and Europe, subsequently triggering a significant depreciation of the dollar. In addition, Morgan Stanley also anticipates a strong recovery in the demand for US Treasury bonds, that the euro is expected to "shine brightly," and that the Bank of England may shorten the interest rate cut cycle.

wallstreetcnDec 25 21:47

Powell's "Christmas gift": U.S. Treasury yields breaking above 4.6%.

Powell's "Christmas gift" this year is a hawkish rate cut. Last week, the Federal Reserve lowered its rate cut forecast, suggesting that there will only be two more cuts in 2025, down from the four cuts suggested in September. The futures market currently expects the federal funds rate to reach around 4% by the end of next year, which means one to two rate cuts.

wallstreetcnDec 25 11:45

The inflation outlook is controversial, and there are three factions within the Federal Reserve.

Federal Reserve officials seem to have divided into three factions regarding the future interest rate outlook, with which one prevails depending on the degree of inflation slowdown next year.

Golden10 DataDec 25 10:10