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GTJA: The turning point of this round of Dairy Product cycle mainly depends on inventory reduction, and demand policies are expected to act as a catalyst.
The Dairy Product Industry is currently in a triple bottom of supply, demand, and inventory. The turning point of this cycle mainly depends on the destocking of inventory, and demand policies are expected to catalyze this. It is anticipated that by Q3 2025, supply and demand will reach a balance, driving profit recovery and market share growth for leading companies.
Major bank rating | Daiwa Capital Markets: Maintain "Shareholding" rating for China Consumer Sector, Bullish on Anta, MINISO and Yili, among others.
Dahua Jixian published a Research Report stating that the State Council issued the "Special Action Plan to Boost Consumer Spending" last Sunday, aiming to enhance consumer capacity by increasing income and reducing financial burdens, generating effective demand through high-quality supply, and improving the consumption environment to strengthen consumers' willingness to spend. The report indicated that within the China Consumer Sector, there is a bullish outlook on ANTA, CHINA RES BEER, GALAXY ENT, HAIER SMARTHOME, Mengniu, Midea, MINISO, and Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group, and the firm maintains a "Shareholding" rating for the China Consumer Sector.
Major Bank Rating | Morgan Stanley: Retail sales in the mainland continue to improve, favoring Mengniu, POP MART, YUM CHINA, and Anta.
Morgan Stanley published a research report stating that in the first two months of this year, retail sales in mainland China grew by 4% year-on-year, compared to a growth of 3.7% in December last year, slightly higher than the market expectation of 3.8%, indicating that the Industry is beginning to recover, and demand is continuing to stabilize. However, Morgan Stanley mentioned that a full recovery still takes time and prefers companies with a Consumer recovery theme, including Mengniu, Yili, and CHOW TAI FOOK; also bullish on high-growth stocks, such as POP MART and Jubao Biological; and prefers companies with resilient profitability and good Shareholder returns, including YUM CHINA and Anta.
Market Update | Dairy Product stocks opened high, MENGNIU DAIRY rose over 3%, CHINA FEIHE rose over 5%, and subsidies for fertility policies are expected to be gradually implemented, which is Bullish for the demand in the infant formula Industry.
In terms of news, the General Office of the Central Committee and the General Office of the State Council issued the "Special Action Plan to Boost Consumer Spending". The plan proposes to strengthen support for fertility and child-rearing.
Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group (600887): Policy catalysis and expectation improvement.
Introduction to this report: The Dairy industry is expected to reach a turning point in 2025, which will benefit leading companies in increasing their market share. It is anticipated that Yili's liquid milk will experience healthy growth, Other businesses will provide additional increment, and after the impairment reduction, profits are expected to be released with some elasticity. The improvement in liquid milk's prosperity, driven by policies, is expected to act as a catalyst.
Lyon: The amount and coverage period of the childcare subsidy in Hohhot exceed expectations. CHINA FEIHE (06168) is expected to benefit the most.
The bank has set the Target Price for CHINA FEIHE at HKD 7.27; the Target Price for H&H INTL HLDG (01112) is set at HKD 10; and the Target Price for Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group (600887.SH) is set at RMB 31. All three stocks are rated as "outperform the market."