Huachuang Securities: Baijiu(Chinese Liquor) fundamentals are expected to be at the bottom phase, focusing on the turning point of inventory and operation cycle for mass consumer goods.
In 2024, the demand for the Baijiu (Chinese Liquor) Sector will gradually weaken throughout the year, with Q4 seeing a slowing down of inventory clearance; the external demand for the mass consumer goods sector is lackluster, but the Dairy industry and Condiment sectors have completed inventory reduction and improved their reports.
GTJA: The turning point of this round of Dairy Product cycle mainly depends on inventory reduction, and demand policies are expected to act as a catalyst.
The Dairy Product Industry is currently in a triple bottom of supply, demand, and inventory. The turning point of this cycle mainly depends on the destocking of inventory, and demand policies are expected to catalyze this. It is anticipated that by Q3 2025, supply and demand will reach a balance, driving profit recovery and market share growth for leading companies.
Major bank rating | Daiwa Capital Markets: Maintain "Shareholding" rating for China Consumer Sector, Bullish on Anta, MINISO and Yili, among others.
Dahua Jixian published a Research Report stating that the State Council issued the "Special Action Plan to Boost Consumer Spending" last Sunday, aiming to enhance consumer capacity by increasing income and reducing financial burdens, generating effective demand through high-quality supply, and improving the consumption environment to strengthen consumers' willingness to spend. The report indicated that within the China Consumer Sector, there is a bullish outlook on ANTA, CHINA RES BEER, GALAXY ENT, HAIER SMARTHOME, Mengniu, Midea, MINISO, and Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group, and the firm maintains a "Shareholding" rating for the China Consumer Sector.
Major Bank Rating | Morgan Stanley: Retail sales in the mainland continue to improve, favoring Mengniu, POP MART, YUM CHINA, and Anta.
Morgan Stanley published a research report stating that in the first two months of this year, retail sales in mainland China grew by 4% year-on-year, compared to a growth of 3.7% in December last year, slightly higher than the market expectation of 3.8%, indicating that the Industry is beginning to recover, and demand is continuing to stabilize. However, Morgan Stanley mentioned that a full recovery still takes time and prefers companies with a Consumer recovery theme, including Mengniu, Yili, and CHOW TAI FOOK; also bullish on high-growth stocks, such as POP MART and Jubao Biological; and prefers companies with resilient profitability and good Shareholder returns, including YUM CHINA and Anta.
Market Update | Dairy Product stocks opened high, MENGNIU DAIRY rose over 3%, CHINA FEIHE rose over 5%, and subsidies for fertility policies are expected to be gradually implemented, which is Bullish for the demand in the infant formula Industry.
In terms of news, the General Office of the Central Committee and the General Office of the State Council issued the "Special Action Plan to Boost Consumer Spending". The plan proposes to strengthen support for fertility and child-rearing.
Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group (600887): Policy catalysis and expectation improvement.
Introduction to this report: The Dairy industry is expected to reach a turning point in 2025, which will benefit leading companies in increasing their market share. It is anticipated that Yili's liquid milk will experience healthy growth, Other businesses will provide additional increment, and after the impairment reduction, profits are expected to be released with some elasticity. The improvement in liquid milk's prosperity, driven by policies, is expected to act as a catalyst.
Lyon: The amount and coverage period of the childcare subsidy in Hohhot exceed expectations. CHINA FEIHE (06168) is expected to benefit the most.
The bank has set the Target Price for CHINA FEIHE at HKD 7.27; the Target Price for H&H INTL HLDG (01112) is set at HKD 10; and the Target Price for Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group (600887.SH) is set at RMB 31. All three stocks are rated as "outperform the market."
A-shares fluctuate | The cyclical main line rebounds! Dairy industry stocks rise across the board, with Beingmate Co.,Ltd and several other stocks hitting the ceiling, and Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group rising over 5%.
On March 14, Glonghui reported that in the past two days, the A-share market has shown a significant rebound in cyclical stocks, among which dairy stocks were up across the board today. Knight Dairy hit the daily trading limit of 30CM, Panda Dairy Corporation and Xinjiang Western Animal Husbandry reached the 20CM limit, Pinlive Foods increased over 15%, Royal Group Co.,Ltd., Beingmate Co.,Ltd., Lanzhou Zhuangyuan Pasture, and New Hope Dairy hit the 10CM limit, Sunshine Dairy rose over 7%, Liziyuan and Shanghai Hi-Road Food Technology increased over 6%, Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group, Zhejiang Yiming Food, and V V Food & Beverage rose over 5%, Guangdong Yantang Dairy, Juneyao Grand Healthy Drinks, and Xinjiang Tianrun Dairy increased over 4%. On the news front, the State Council Information Office will hold a press conference on March 17, 2025 (Monday) at 3 PM.
Express News | Overview of A-share Share Buyback: 46 companies disclosed their buyback progress.
Express News | The FTSE China A50 Index will include Cambricon, China United Network Communications, and GTJA.
Central China: Supply and demand are tending to balance, and raw milk prices are expected to stabilize.
Since 2024, the supply and demand pattern of the raw milk market has improved, and raw milk prices are expected to stabilize within the year. The balance of supply and demand upstream for raw milk is favorable for the overall development of the Industry, and the Dairy Product Industry's valuation in the secondary market is also expected to recover.
Soochow: Imbalance in supply and demand in the dairy industry intensifies. Focus on leading farms and the recovery of dairy companies' profitability.
Soochow anticipates that the Industry is expected to achieve supply-demand balance in the second half of 2025, stabilizing milk prices.
Express News | Yili Group has established strategic cooperation with Beijing Tongrentang and Hubei Agricultural Development Group.
Express News | Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group: Successfully issued the first and second phases of ultra-short-term financing bonds for the year 2025.
SWHY: The performance of the CSI SWS Food & Beverage index in the 2024 annual report shows differentiation, with two types of opportunities emerging in consumer goods.
The Baijiu Industry shows bottom characteristics during the Spring Festival but still needs verification. Combined with the current valuation and dividend levels, leading companies have mid to long-term investment value from a dividend yield perspective.
Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group (600887.SH): Has repurchased a total of 0.5050% of its shares.
Glory Exchange reports on February 5 that Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group (600887.SH) announced that as of the end of January 2025, the company has repurchased a total of 32,144,761 shares, accounting for 0.5050% of the company's total share capital. The highest purchase price was 27.07 yuan per share, and the lowest price was 21.57 yuan per share. The total amount paid was 757,583,125.84 RMB (excluding transaction fees).
Research Reports to explore opportunities | SWHY: Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group has a high valuation cost-performance ratio, maintaining a 'Buy' rating.
On January 23, Gelonghui reported that SWHY Research pointed out that Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group (600887.SH) maintains its leading position and long-term growth potential. In the liquid milk sector, there is still room for improvement in the penetration rate of high-end categories; in the milk powder sector, accompanied by the exit of small and medium-sized enterprises, the trend of concentration of leading companies' market share remains unchanged. With the clearance of upstream raw milk supply and the improvement of supply-demand dynamics, the pressure from inventory and credit impairment is expected to ease, and future profitability is likely to improve. Looking ahead to 2025, if raw milk prices stabilize, it will significantly improve inventory impairment performance, while the exit of low stock price milk sources is expected to alleviate competitive pressure to some extent. If 2025.
Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group (600887): The supply and demand in the Industry are gradually improving, and cost optimization enhances profitability.
Investment Highlights: Event: Recently, the National Bureau of Statistics disclosed that the total milk production in 2024 will be 40.79 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2.8%. Among them, the milk production in the fourth quarter is 11.77 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 9%. The year-on-year decline in milk production has expanded.
Southwest Securities 2025 CSI SWS Food & Beverage investment strategy: Baijiu(Chinese Liquor) fundamentals remain under pressure; select individual stocks for mass consumer goods.
With the recovery of the B-end Dining Industry and the continuing health trend of C-end Condiment, the landscape of the Condiment Industry will continue to improve.
Express News | Yili Group signed a Global Strategy agreement with Guizhou Yishu Group.