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After the Mid-Autumn Festival, the consumer loan interest rates of banks starting with the number "1" are gradually ending, with 2.88% still being the mainstream. The industry believes that in the long term, it will still enter the range starting with the
1. Although various commercial banks have all launched consumer loan promotional activities, the optimal level of annual interest rates for consumer loans is still maintained at 2.88%. 2. In order to increase the credit release efforts, banks have lowered the interest rates of consumer loans in exchange for quantity, and this has become a common situation in the consumer loan market. 3. With interest rates at a downward trend, consumer loan interest rates are expected to continue to decline, and the market's consumer loan levels may enter the single digits.
In Lyon's 'Large Banks', the sensitivity analysis of the impact of china mainland banking stocks and potential interest rate cuts on net profits (Table).
According to a report released by Lyon, the potential impact on the annual net profit of each China mainland banking stock if the mortgage interest rate is reduced by 50 basis points, 60 basis points, and 75 basis points is as follows: Postal Savings Bank of China (01658.HK): -11% / -13.2% / -15.4%; China Construction Bank (00939.HK): -8.2% / -9.9% / -11.5%; Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (01398.HK): -7.8% / -9.3% / -10%.
In Lyon's "Great Banking", financial experts expect that the mainland may soon cut interest rates. If the policy effectively eases the net interest margin losses, there is a preference for China Construction Bank (00939.HK) and Ping An Bank (03968.HK).
Lyon's report states that the banking industry in China has not yet seen the light at the end of the tunnel. Last week, the bank met with banking and financial industry experts in four cities in mainland China and indicated that there was no significant improvement in related businesses, loan demand remained weak, the quality of retail assets may deteriorate further, and there were no signs of a peak. However, the maturity of time deposits and lower interest rates will bring encouraging performance to net interest margin, but there is still the risk of potential lowering of mortgage loan rates that has not been realized. Bankers have not found any significant catalysts that can change the situation of "economic weakness, weak demand", and it is estimated that next year may be another year of soft loan growth for the bank.
The gold price soaring caught the banks by surprise. Agricultural Bank of China announced that the minimum purchase point for accumulated gold is linked to the floating gold price. More than 10 banks have raised their purchase thresholds within the year.
On September 18th, the Agricultural Bank of China announced on its official website that the starting point for purchasing the Bank's Cunjin Tong No.2 will be adjusted to fluctuate with the price of gold. This is the first bank this year to link the purchase point of cumulative deposits to the price of gold. There have been about 10 large banks that have announced an increase in the starting point for purchasing cumulative deposits this year, but they are mostly concentrated in the first half of the year. If gold continues to be strong, it is not ruled out that more banks will follow suit and continue to adjust the starting point for purchasing cumulative deposits.
Galaxy Securities: Bullish on the dividend value of the banking sector.
China Galaxy Securities research reports indicate that the governance of financial 'squeezing out water' and the circulation of funds continue, and credit injection is slowing down and improving in quality, with a balanced pace and a reasonable growth in total amount, supported by government bond issuance to boost social financing.
China Vanke: Finished Withdrawing Loan, With CNY580M Left
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