AUD Can Fall Towards 0.6360/0.6340 – BBH
West Pacific Banks: The Reserve Bank of Australia will cut interest rates for the first time in May next year
Gelonghui, November 21｜Westpac is now forecasting that the Reserve Bank of australia will begin to cut interest rates in May next year, later than the previous prediction of February. The bank's chief economist, Luci Ellis, stated, "Similar to some predictions from peers, we expect the initial rate cuts to be somewhat ahead of schedule, likely occurring consecutively at the end of May and the beginning of July." This differs from the prior expectation of Westpac reducing rates once each quarter. However, Westpac still expects that by the end of next year, interest rates will decrease from the current 4.35% to a lower limit of 3.35%.
The australian dollar and new zealand dollar are striving to hold steady, with the australian central bank expected to cut interest rates for the first time as early as February next year.
As the dollar retraces part of its recent gains, the australian dollar and new zealand dollar held steady on Wednesday (November 20), briefly reaching a one-week high earlier and looking to extend their gains for the fourth consecutive trading day. The market is awaiting whom President-elect Trump will choose as Treasury Secretary, as well as the likelihood that this candidate will advance Trump's comprehensive tariffs and tax proposals, leading to a pause in the dollar's rise. The australian dollar continues to gain some support from a stable interest rate outlook, with the previous minutes from the reserve bank of australia indicating that it remains vigilant to the risks of rising inflation. jpmorgan's analyst wrote in a report: "Compared to macro data
Australia's Leading Index Moves Into Positive Territory in October
Australia's Consumer Spending Growth Eases in September Quarter, Trails Inflation
In October, the Westpac leading indicators for australia rose by 0.2% month-on-month, expected that the australian central bank will maintain the interest rate unchanged next month.
Australia's Westpac Bank announced that after almost no fluctuations in the past six months, the Westpac Leading Index in Australia increased by 0.2% in October. The six-month annualized growth rate, which reflects the trend of economic activity in the next three to nine months, turned positive from the previous -0.2 to 0.26. The data reflects further signs of improvement in Australia's future economic momentum. Westpac economist Ryan Wells expects that the Reserve Bank of Australia will keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged at the December monetary policy meeting. As for next year, it will be necessary to consider how close inflation needs to be to the target before moving the currency government to a less restrictive level.