Swiss National Bank's interest rate cut cycle is nearing its end: economists predict the last rate cut will be in September.
According to a survey conducted from July 5th to 11th, the Swiss National Bank's last interest rate cut of 25 basis points will take place in September. Prior to this, the bank had already cut interest rates twice in March and June.
Commodity costs have decreased, and Swiss franc inflation has unexpectedly slowed down.
On July 4th, GuoLianHui reported that the unexpected easing of Switzerland's inflation has put Swiss central bank officials at ease. The Swiss Federal Statistical Office said on Thursday that CPI rose 1.3% from the same period last year in June. This increase was lower than economists' expectations and also lower than May's 1.4% increase, the fastest increase this year. Compared with the same period last year, commodity costs fell by 0.2%, while services increased by 2.4%, which played a role in cooling the economy. The core inflation rate also fell to 1.1%. The Swiss National Bank has cut interest rates in its most recent two meetings and launched an easing policy before global peers such as the European Central Bank. Given that the benchmark interest rate in Switzerland is currently 1.25.
The annual inflation rate in Switzerland in June was 1.3%, lower than expected.
Swiss Franc's annual inflation rate for June is 1.3%, lower than the previous 1.4%. The predicted value is 1.4%.~
Express News | Swiss National Bank cuts interest rates again.
Pan Macro: Swiss National Bank rate cut is not over yet.
June 20th, Guolonghui | Melanie Debono, senior macro economist of Pansun Europe, believes that after the 25 basis point rate cut on Thursday, the Swiss central bank is expected to continue cutting interest rates. The Swiss National Bank believes that the average inflation rate in 2024, 2025 and 2026 will be slightly lower than the March forecast, making its forecast closer to Pansun's macro forecast. Debono said:"The most important thing is that the Swiss National Bank believes that at the end of its forecast range, namely the first quarter of 2027, the inflation rate is only 1%, and we believe that this is the threshold for further interest rate cuts." If the Swiss National Bank forecasts inflation at the end of the period
Kathryn Macro: Swiss franc unlikely to cut interest rates again this year.
On June 20th, KIT Finance Macro European economist Adrian Prettejohn stated in a report that due to significant inflation pressures, the Swiss National Bank may not cut interest rates again this year. The Swiss National Bank has lowered its key interest rate for the second time in a row, from 1.5% to 1.25%. Labor compensation is growing at a strong pace, while service industry inflation remains high, indicating that potential pressures have not eased. In fact, although the Swiss National Bank slightly lowered inflation forecasts for 2025 and 2026, the magnitude of the reduction is small and does not seem to reflect a significant change in outlook.