Trump retracted Biden's "license" for Venezuelan oil! Oil prices are recovering from the lows.
① Trump announced on Wednesday, February 26, the cancellation of the oil "Charter Agreement" with Venezuela, which previously allowed the USA to partially restore oil exploration and export in Venezuela; ② Chevron is the only company to have obtained a concession from Venezuela's state oil company, and the revocation of this concession means Chevron can no longer export the Crude Oil Product produced in Venezuela; ③ This move also strikes a blow to Venezuela's oil industry, with local oil production expected to decline.
Reducing production fears losing the market, increasing production fears a collapse in oil prices. Is OPEC+ trapped in an unsolvable "deadlock"?
OPEC and its allies are facing a tricky dilemma: whether to begin easing oil production limits, even though the Crude Oil Product supply and demand situation is unlikely to improve in the short term. They are likely to choose to delay the critical decision moment again to maintain price stability, but doing so increasingly risks losing market control.
Crude Oil Product speculators are withdrawing one after another! Oil prices have technically broken through, and net long positions have decreased for four consecutive weeks.
Oil prices have fallen to their lowest point since 2025, with a cooling attitude among speculators, and net Call bets on Crude Oil reduced to the lowest level since October of last year.
Not afraid of pressure from Trump? Traders expect OPEC+ to delay the production increase plan for April again.
Despite Trump pressuring for a price cut, traders generally expect that due to a potential oversupply in the Global market, OPEC+ will postpone the planned monthly production increase set to start in April by one to three months. This is the fourth time since 2022 that OPEC+ has delayed plans to restore oil production.
Midday Crude Oil Analysis: The USA Crude Oil Product inventory report is delayed in release. Can oil prices withstand sanctions and supply shocks?
Before the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) releases its weekly US Crude Oil Product inventory report, Brent Crude Oil Futures fell slightly during the early morning trading session in Asia.
The significance of Russia-Ukraine peace for Commodity! Goldman Sachs: significant impact on Henry Hub Natural Gas, limited impact on gold and Aluminum.
Goldman Sachs warned that if the flow of Henry Hub Natural Gas from Russia to Europe returns to pre-war levels, European Natural Gas could drop by 56% this summer. Since current sanctions have not severely impacted the export volumes of Russian oil and Metal, the impact of a peace agreement on these Commodities is relatively limited. The Global central bank gold buying spree will also continue.