Technology
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Looking ahead to next week | The State Council Information Office will hold a press conference on October 8th, and A-shares will open on Tuesday; The Fed meeting minutes will be accompanied by heavyweight US CPI data.
Federal Reserve officials take turns appearing; Tesla will officially release Robotaxi, AMD will host 'Advancing AI 2024'; Q3 earnings season is coming! JPMorgan and others are the first to announce performance; Due to the Double Ninth Festival, Hong Kong stocks will be closed for one day on Friday, and southbound and northbound trades will be closed.
There is still room for upside! Goldman Sachs: China's stock market is raised to "overweight", expected to rise another 15-20%.
Goldman Sachs raised the target price of MSCI China from 66 to 84, and raised the target price of the CSI 300 Index from 4000 to 4600. In terms of industry allocation, Goldman Sachs adjusted insurance and other finance to overweight, metals and mining to neutral, and telecommunication services to underweight.
Will the "ignored" usa inflation be the black swan of the fourth quarter?
The Middle East conflict may lead to a surge in oil prices, as well as the wage growth in non-farm data, all indicating that the usa's "inflation is not dead".
Non-farm strong? Wall Street still has doubts: there is expected to be a big adjustment in October, and the Fed may cut interest rates by 50 basis points in December.
Citigroup believes that seasonal adjustments may have magnified the September data, and it is the lower quit rate rather than strong hiring that is driving up the employment figures. The current trend of weakening labor demand in the United States has not been broken, and future employment data will undergo more drastic revisions, eventually prompting the Federal Reserve to cut rates by 50 basis points in December.
Non-farm payrolls greatly exceeded expectations, "no more interest rate cuts this year" enters Wall Street discussion.
After the non-farm payroll data was released, the expectation for the Federal Reserve's future interest rate cuts in the next four meetings is less than 100 basis points. Wall Street veteran Ed Yardeni believes that the Fed's monetary easing policy for the year may have already come to an end, considering the market's aggressive rate-cut pricing, any additional easing policy could increase the probability of a stock market crash.
The U.S. non-farm payroll data is too hot, Summers called the Fed's aggressive rate cut last month a mistake.
1. The CBOT's "Fed Watch" tool shows that after the report was released, the market expects a 99.1% chance of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in November; 2. Former U.S. Treasury Secretary Summers posted that the Fed's "50 basis point rate cut in September" was a mistake.
September's strong non-farm employment pusher behind the scenes: Before the election, record seasonally adjusted and "civil servant" positions.
The seasonal adjustment amplitude in September has refreshed the highest record, while excluding the abnormal values after the outbreak of the new crown epidemic in June 2020. This is also the largest monthly increase for government workers on record.
US stocks close | The three major indices all rose, with the Dow hitting a new closing high, tesla up nearly 4%; the China Golden Dragon Index rose more than 3%, up nearly 12% for the week.
The S&P 500 rose 0.2% for the week, while the Dow was slightly up, the Nasdaq rose 0.1%, the chip index fell 0.2%, and the small cap index fell 0.6%. The S&P energy sector surged over 7% for the week, marking its best performance in nearly two years.
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Nearly doubled compared to expectations! September non-farm payrolls 'exceeded expectations', is the Fed slowing down rate cuts a 'foregone conclusion'?
Powell "saves" face, and traders are now lowering their expectations for the Fed's future interest rate cuts at the next four meetings to less than 100 basis points.
US stock market outlook: US September non-farm data higher than expected! Three major futures indicators surge in a straight line; will Chinese concept stocks continue to climb? Morgan Stanley: If short positions cover, it will push up the upward trend.
Bank of America: China stock fund saw the second highest inflow scale in history in the past week; European Central Bank Governing Council: inflation is under control, concerns arise as labor market cools down; spirit airlines plunged 33% before the market, the company is discussing potential bankruptcy application terms.
The market and the Federal Reserve's game is gradually heating up! Will tonight's non-farm payrolls determine the extent of the interest rate cut?
The analyst pointed out that Powell hinted at a 25 basis point rate cut in November and December, but if the employment data is weak, a significant rate cut plan may be put back on the agenda.
Nvidia soared, due to Blackwell and also due to OpenAI, while institutions are actually underweighted?
Huang Renxun said in an interview with CNBC that the upcoming Blackwell AI "super chip" has a "crazy" demand. At the same time, nvidia invested 0.1 billion US dollars in the funding of OpenAI, and the market views this cooperation as a symbolic step, which may enable nvidia to have a deeper understanding of OpenAI's chip procurement plan.