Semiconductors
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What happened? Global chip stocks have collectively surged, with NVIDIA and Taiwan Semiconductor both reaching new closing highs.
NVIDIA's intraday stock price has broken through $150 for the first time since last November, with semiconductor stocks in Asia, Europe, and the USA seeing a broad rise. The demand for AI stimulated Foxconn's revenue to reach a record high in the fourth quarter of last year, becoming the main driver for leading chip stocks. At the same time, Microsoft and OpenAI have both released bullish signals for AI demand, and the market is also looking forward to Jensen Huang's significant speech on Monday, which has boosted sentiment.
Broadcom is迎来了 its "NVIDIA moment".
Before joining the "trillion dollar club", Broadcom's Market Cap had already reached around 800 billion USD. The rise of such a large AI Chip stock has made Wall Street think of NVIDIA.
Is there another reason to be Bullish on ASIC? The second half of the computing power war has begun, and the era of AI reasoning may be approaching.
① Ilya Sutskever, co-founder of OpenAI, pointed out that data resources are running low, and the next generation of AI models will be true AI Agents with reasoning capabilities. ② The o1 model recently released by OpenAI has a standout performance characteristic of "capable of reasoning and thinking." ③ The demand for reasoning calculations can even reach 4.5 times that of training calculations, and customized ASIC chips are expected to rise.
Counterpoint: In the third quarter, the Global Semiconductors Industry revenue reached 158.2 billion USD, with a year-on-year growth of 17%.
In the third quarter of 2024, the Global Semiconductors Industry revenue grew by 17% year-on-year, reaching 158.2 billion dollars, mainly driven by demand for AI technology and the recovery of the memory industry.
The giants are high-profile in giving out money, the AI arms race is in full swing, US chip stocks are all rising, is it likely to spark a new round of AI market?
The competition among technology giants for AI hardware has intensified. This week, amazon announced plans to build the world's largest AI computing cluster, followed by meta's announcement of a $10 billion AI datacenter, and news from xAI, owned by Musk, about its plan to expand its supercomputer project tenfold...
Industry associations collectively call on domestic companies to be cautious in purchasing usa chips. Institutions provide this analysis as overseas semiconductor giants have repeatedly increased their investment in the china market.
① China has become the most important application market for the global IC industry. Institutions analyze that the new round of export controls by the usa has fractured the global semiconductor market and may also limit the development of usa's own enterprises; ② In the past two years, several overseas semiconductor companies have chosen to increase their investment in the china market and value the growth opportunities of chinese customers.
Exposure of the total number of GPUs from the top five global giants! By 2025, the equivalent of H100 or more than 12.4 million pieces.
As of now, the total computing power of the world's five major technology companies, microsoft, Meta, Google, amazon, and xAI, is approximately 3.55 million equivalent H100 units. nvidia may sell 7 million GPUs by 2025, almost all of which are from the latest Hopper and Blackwell series.
"Trump 2.0" deters the global? South Korea plans to increase support for chip companies and introduce $10 billion low-interest loans next year.
① South Korea plans to increase financial support for domestic chip manufacturers next year to address the challenges posed by the 'Trump 2.0' policy and competitors like China; ② The South Korean Ministry of Finance stated that low-interest loans will reach 14.3 trillion won (approximately 10.2 billion USD) next year to support new chip park enterprises and others.
Will the chip industry face more challenges with Trump's election?
Since the elected president Donald Trump took office, the USA has been using trade restrictions and sanctions to contain china's technological progress. Now that Trump has returned to the White House, the semiconductor war between USA and china may escalate further.
Will the chip factory brought in by Biden be 'sabotaged' by Trump? The US manufacturing industry is very worried.
①Whether it's Biden, Harris, or Trump, they are all eager to see the reshoring of the manufacturing industry in the usa; ②However, under the same goal, the two parties seem to be taking vastly different paths; ③Behind this significant difference, many industry professionals in the usa are worried that the wave of factory construction sparked by subsidies during the Biden administration may come to a halt abruptly after Trump takes office...
What determines the direction of chip stocks? How much more money do the cloud giants need to invest, and who has received Taiwan Semiconductor's production capacity?
The current market is focusing on the capital expenditure of cloud computing giants and the allocation of Taiwan Semiconductor's CoWoS packaging capacity. Daiwa believes that AMD seems to have reduced its CoWoS orders at Taiwan Semiconductor in 2025, but this capacity is immediately taken over by nvidia, with nvidia's demand expected to account for 63% by 2025. Capital expenditure on cloud computing is accelerating due to investment in GPU chips, and year-on-year growth is expected to peak in the first half of 2025.
Huang Renxun "apologized": nvidia Blackwell chips had design flaws but have been fixed, can the semiconductor market driven by AI continue?
On October 23rd, nvidia CEO Jensen Huang launched a new supercomputer named Gefion in Denmark, which has 1528 GPUs and is planned to be used for drug research and development, disease diagnosis, treatment, and complex life science challenges. Huang believes, "The era of computer-aided drug research is bound to come within ten years, which will be the decade of digital biology."
Semiconductor companies have very different fates! Are chip stocks doubling all thanks to AI?
Last week, the chip stock earnings season officially kicked off. However, taiwan semiconductor and asml holding, which released their earnings reports just one day apart, had completely different fates.
GPUs outperform CPUs, AI is changing the chip industry.
Yole predicts in its latest report that, driven by generative ai, the GPU market size is expected to reach $190 billion by 2029, twice as large as the CPU market size!
Apart from AI, all are losers! Asml holding exposes the "fierce" trend of differentiation in the chip industry.
Despite bullish signals released by AI, key markets such as personal computers and autos have yet to emerge from the winter, analysts predict that the differentiation in the chip industry will last at least until 2025. Traditional chip companies that fail to seize the AI wave will have more room for further stock price declines. Focus on the latest financial reports of Texas Instruments, Lam Research, and others this week.
Technology stocks are experiencing another outbreak, igniting market bullish sentiment. Grasping intra-day rotational opportunities remains crucial.
Track the entire lifecycle of the main sector.
Is winter really coming? Micron's financial report slaps Goldman Sachs in the face, global semiconductor stocks partying together.
①This Thursday, global chip stocks enjoyed a frenzy. After Micron Technology released a bright financial report, SK Hynix and Tokyo Electron Ltd. Unsponsored ADR also reported bullish news, driving the chip stock prices in the USA, Japan, South Korea, and Europe to generally rise; ②In sharp contrast to the continuous good news, half a month ago, Morgan Stanley released a bearish report titled "Winter is Coming".
taiwan semiconductor packaging, crazy expansion
To meet the capacity demands for advanced packaging of AI servers, Taiwan Semiconductor is gearing up.
The chain reaction of the Fed's interest rate cut: small cap stocks are highly favored.
Many smaller AI sector stocks in the Asian market are relatively few, so their valuations are not expensive; coupled with the dovish turn of the Federal Reserve, which has pushed up the currencies of these Asian countries, some central banks have room to lower interest rates and implement loose policies to support economic growth.
Unfazed by the volatility! The chip index has risen for four consecutive days. Nvidia and Broadcom have rebounded strongly this week. Is the optimistic sentiment quietly returning?
In the face of such intense turbulence, several major chip giants still have bullish forecasts from Wall Street, with a potential increase of around 20%-40%. How should investors view the investment prospects of chip stocks?