Rising too fast! On the eve of CPI data, the US bond yield approaches the key resistance level of 4.5%.
The overnight yield on the 10-year US Treasury bond rose to a four-month high of 4.43%, just a step away from the key resistance level of 4.5%. Once the yield exceeds 4.5%, the only barrier to reaching 5% will be 4.66%. In addition, the rise in US Treasury yields is also putting pressure on US stock valuations.
CPI rebound alarm sounded? Fed may press the pause button on interest rate cuts early next year.
Economists expect the overall CPI to rebound for the first time in eight months in October, while core CPI also remains sticky.
Futu Morning Post | Fed 'hawkish': interest rate cuts will only stop in December if unexpected inflation appears; Blue chips party night! Shopify soared more than 21%, sea rose more than 10%, stock prices hit a new two-and-a-half-year high.
The Federal Reserve: The one-year inflation expectation for October in the usa fell to a four-year low, Netflix rose nearly 2% to hit a record high, with 70 million monthly active users on the ad-supported subscription plan, labor market expectations are improving.
Loose cycle meets "tariff wall", ex-Fed officials warn: Don't count on four rate cuts next year!
① Cleveland Fed former chair Mester said that if Trump's proposed global tariffs take effect, the Fed may cut interest rates less than expected next year; ② Mester stated that the market expects the Fed's rate cut to be less than the previous four times, which may be correct.
U.S. stock outlook | Will Trump's "Super Week" come to an end? Goldman Sachs: U.S. stocks will enter a rotation market; all three major futures indices fell before the market, while high-performing stocks rose against the trend.
Taiwan Semiconductor fell more than 1% before trading, with news that Taiwan Semiconductor has stopped supplying mainland 7-nanometer AI chips; Home Depot expects full-year revenue growth of 4%, previously expected to grow 2.5% to 3.5%, rising more than 1% before trading; Shopify's third-quarter revenue of 2.16 billion US dollars exceeded analysts' expectations, with a net income of 0.828 billion US dollars, rising more than 13% before trading.
Four key points you need to know about the 'Trump 2.0 era'! This research report from Deutsche Bank covers it all.
The current financial environment is vastly different from when Trump won for the first time in 2016, greatly reducing the risk of a debt ceiling crisis in the United States over the next two years.