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The central bank net withdrew 139 billion yuan today, and the liquidity situation is hard to describe as loose. The market expects that in February, regulation may increase the open market reverse repo operations to supplement liquidity.
① Due to the continuous large-scale net withdrawal of funds by the central bank after the holiday, the overall market liquidity remains relatively tight, which deviates from market expectations; ② In February, government deposits may freeze excess reserves of around 700 billion yuan. Considering the comprehensive impact of MLF and the maturity of reverse repos, the liquidity gap in February may be around 700 billion yuan. It is expected that the central bank will increase reverse repos to supplement medium- and long-term liquidity.
Financial Association C50 Wind Direction Index Survey: After the festival, the funds situation is unlikely to be loose, and the window period for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate reductions may be delayed.
① At the end of January, the fund price remains high during the Spring Festival period; ② There is a high probability that the liquidity will ease after the Spring Festival, but the extent and degree of easing remain to be observed; ③ Whether to cut the reserve requirement ratio or interest rates still depends on the economic and financial situation.
China's CPI Inflation Rises to 0.5% YoY in January Vs. 0.4% Expected
HAITONG SEC's commentary on the January 2025 inflation data: "CPI rebound under the 'distorted Spring Festival'"
The National Bureau of Statistics released the price data for January 2025, with the CPI rising 0.5% year-on-year and the PPI falling 2.3%, remaining the same as the previous month.
National Statistics Bureau interpretation: The CPI increase expanded in January, while the PPI decreased year-on-year.
The National Bureau of Statistics released the national CPI (Consumer Price Index) and PPI (Producer Price Index) data for January 2025 today. In response, Dong Lijuan, the chief statistician of the Urban Division of the National Bureau of Statistics, provided an explanation.
Cailian Press C50 Wind Direction Index survey: The新增 Crediting scale in January is expected to remain high, and after adjustments, the M1 trend is becoming stable.
① The strength of January's Crediting "New Year Red" may not reach historical levels, but it remains relatively high within the year; ② The pre-issuance of government bonds may support social financing growth, and after adjustments, the seasonal disturbance of M1 fades; ③ The year-on-year growth rate of CPI in January may rise from a low position, while the decline in PPI continues to narrow.