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As fears around Trump rise, the trends in Emerging Markets MMF and Gold diverge.
Amid expectations of Trump possibly returning to the White House, the 30-day correlation between Gold and the MSCI Emerging Markets MMF Index has dropped to its lowest point in nearly three years. Over the past three years, these two Assets have been positively correlated 86% of the time, but now they are experiencing a 30-day negative correlation, which has occurred for only the fifth time in three years.
On the first trading day of the New Year, Bank stocks opened high and then fell back. Many Institutions: the opening performance may be better than in previous years, but the trend of declining net interest margin remains unchanged.
① The crediting ratio between each quarter is expected to recover to a ratio of 4:3:2:1. ② It is expected that policy trends will continue, gradually boosting demand in the Real Estate sector. ③ This year, the decline in net interest margin for Banks is narrower compared to 2024, with a calculated interest margin of 1.34% under neutral assumptions.
High-dividend Coal Industrial Concept(coal Industry) stocks will be the "stable happiness" in 2024. The trend of Thermal Coal next year may fluctuate in a narrow range | 2025 outlook.
① The Coal Sector is expected to perform brilliantly in 2024, humorously referred to as the "most profitable track in A-shares"; ② Industry insiders anticipate that Thermal Coal prices will fluctuate within the Range next year.
2025: The "spring" of the Banks arrives, resulting in a huge explosion in profits!
After experiencing a few years of ups and downs, 2025 may be the breakout year for Global large Banks!
Daily Bull and Bear | The latest bull and bear street ratio of the Hang Seng Index has risen to 63:37! A net Inflow of 17 million HKD for good positions; cooperation with ByteDance to access the Doubao large model, LENOVO GROUP's multiple subscription cer
By the market close, the total market turnover was 139.519 billion Hong Kong dollars, with all warrants and mini futures totaling a turnover of 6.872 billion Hong Kong dollars, accounting for 4.9% of the total market turnover, of which long positions accounted for 3.3% and short positions accounted for 1.7%. Additionally, the net Inflow of all warrants and mini futures was 59.8656 million Hong Kong dollars.
Institutional perspective: Pay attention to the market cap management and allocation opportunities of state-owned enterprises.
The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission strengthens guidance on the Market Cap management work of central enterprises, and Market Cap management is included in the performance evaluation of the heads of central state-owned enterprises.