Goldman Sachs warns: If Iran's oil supply is disrupted, oil prices could soar by $20!
Goldman Sachs' global commodity research co-head stated that if Iran experiences a continuous daily production decline of 1 million barrels, it is expected that next year the oil price will peak at around $20 per barrel.
Sharp rise! Why did oil prices finally 'react' this time?
If Haruk Island is attacked, it will take several months to repair the facilities even in the best case scenario. About 90% of Iran's exports go through these ports. In the event of such a situation, it is expected that oil prices will immediately surge by more than 10% and continue to rise.
Hong Kong stocks surged! The Hang Seng Index soared by nearly 4%, the H-share Index rose by over 2%, and china-affiliated brokerage and real estate stocks collectively skyrocketed.
Looking at the market, diversified finance, Chinese brokerage, energy and other gainianbankuai sectors are leading in terms of increase.
Oil prices rise more than 5%! Is Israel going to attack Iranian oil facilities? Biden: Currently discussing.
Analysts believe that the oil market is not vigilant enough about the imminent major supply disruptions. With Israel potentially planning retaliatory attacks against Iran, possibly targeting its oil infrastructure, this prospect could impact bearish energy market participants. Analysts believe that the ultimate impact on global oil supply-demand balance and prices depends on the extent of Israel's response, and whether they see any actual damage to Iran's oil industry.
Breaking news! 15 fierce attacks, over 50 rockets, a large hole blown in the hangar... Middle East situation escalating, "full-scale war about to break out".
The tension in the Middle East has escalated.
Israeli soldiers were ambushed by Hezbollah! The military reported the first soldier killed in ground operations in Lebanon.
①Israel bombed the Lebanese capital Beirut again in the early hours of Thursday local time, resulting in at least six deaths; ②Prior to this, the Israeli army had just encountered the heaviest casualties in a year of conflicts between Lebanon and Israel on the southern border of Lebanon; ③The Israeli Defense Forces confirmed for the first time that eight soldiers were killed in ground military operations against Lebanon.
OPEC+ maintains its plan to increase production starting in December. Saudi Arabia warns that failure to comply with the production cut agreement could cause oil prices to drop to $50.
Saudi Arabia named Iraq and Kazakhstan, these two countries have not fulfilled the production cut agreement. According to some delegates, the message from Saudi Arabia is that if there is no room in the market, increasing production is meaningless, and some people are better off stopping. Other oil-producing countries interpret Saudi Arabia's latest statement as a tacit threat, that if other countries do not adhere to the production cut agreement, Saudi Arabia is willing to launch a price war to protect its market share.
Iran has taken action, what does this mean for oil prices?
Iran launched missiles, escalating geopolitical tensions, overnight oil prices spiked then fell back. The mainstream market view still believes that the conflict will not expand into a full-scale war, similar to April this year, but in the long run, Israel's response will determine the trend of oil prices.
Iran warns of devastating blow if retaliated against, Israel may carry out major retaliation in the coming hours.
Iran launched the largest-ever missile attack on Israel overnight! Iran warns that any response from Israel will result in a devastating attack, with Prime Minister Netanyahu vowing to make them pay, and the usa is ready to defend Israel.
Hong Kong A shares are collectively active! A-share trading volume exceeded 1 trillion in 35 minutes. How do you view this round of "policy big gift package"?
After 35 minutes of trading, the trading volume in Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing has exceeded 1 trillion yuan, up over 400 billion yuan from the previous trading day's volume, with Shanghai's trading volume at 439.2 billion yuan, Shenzhen's at 557.9 billion yuan, and Beizheng 50's at 5.9 billion yuan, breaking the fastest trillion-dollar record in history.
Five major state-owned banks announced: Existing home loan interest rates have been lowered, with detailed measures to be released on October 12th! Shanghai and Guangzhou introduce new real estate policies again.
The People's Bank of China released an announcement on September 29th, improving the pricing mechanism for commercial individual housing loans, allowing existing housing loans that meet certain conditions to be renegotiated in terms of point increments, promoting the reduction of existing housing loan interest rates.
After the announcement of the new round of interest rate reduction for existing house loans, China Construction Bank is actively promoting new housing loans! Targeting the Golden Week, many branches of state-owned banks are also taking action.
1. ABC Bank took the lead in deploying the National Day housing loan discount promotion during the traditional Chinese lunar calendar month of September and the tenth lunar month, becoming the first state-owned large bank to launch this activity after the official announcement of the adjustment of existing housing loans. 2. In addition to ABC Bank's nationwide mortgage marketing activities, some local branches and sub-branches of state-owned large banks are also taking action. 3. Despite facing pressure from the adjustment of existing housing loan interest rates, mortgage loans, as high-quality credit assets, have always been a battleground for various banks.
Middle East conflict escalates significantly! Goldman Sachs: Oil prices have not yet factored in geopolitical risks.
Oil bears currently hold a record position, and if the Strait of Hormuz is closed, the risk premium for oil prices may arrive, leading to a surge in oil prices. In addition, oil prices are also supported by global easing cycle, inventory growth, and positions and valuations at low levels.
Careful of soaring oil prices? Goldman Sachs warns: the oil market is completely unprepared for escalation in the Middle East conflict.
Goldman Sachs analyst lindsay Matcham stated that further escalation of the conflict may have a significant impact on the market, especially if the conflict involves the potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which could lead to a sharp rise in local oil prices; Goldman Sachs analyst lina Thomas, in another report, focused on outlining four short-term positive drivers in the crude oil product market, including mentioning Middle East trends.
Hong Kong stocks surged for the fourth day and broke through the top again, with southbound funds buying 500 billion yuan explosively within the year. Northbound funds went on a shopping spree in September, selling Alibaba and Meituan, as well as Tencent.
In September, the amount of southbound funds inflow was 30 billion Hong Kong dollars, showing a slight decrease compared to the previous month, but still maintaining a trend of net fund inflow for 15 consecutive months.
Daily Bull and Bear | Hong Kong stocks rise against the trend! Hang Seng Index futures skyrocket to 20,600 points; Alibaba's three-day surge exceeds 12%, call warrants profit by 5.5 times.
On Thursday, the Hang Seng Index closed sharply up 795 points, reaching a high of 19,954 and a low of 19,176, closing at 19,924. At night, the Hang Seng Index futures (September) continued to be strong, closing at 20,681 points, up 553 points or 2.75%, with a high of 756 points.
The central bank has launched two measures at the same time! The reserve requirement ratio is reduced by 0.5 percentage points, and the 7-day reverse repurchase operation interest rate is lowered by 20 basis points.
Starting from September 27, 2024, the reserve requirement ratio for financial institutions is reduced by 0.5 percentage points. After this reduction, the weighted average reserve requirement ratio for financial institutions is approximately 6.6%.
Price war again? It is rumored that OPEC+ will continue to increase production, causing a sharp 3% drop in oil prices!
OPEC+ plans to increase production by 0.18 million barrels per day in December, which is part of the process of easing production cuts.
Interbank certificate of deposit quota is in urgent need! Some banks are already below 5%, and it may ease in the fourth quarter.
① The balance of certificates of deposit from the six major state-owned banks accounts for 82.04% of the quota in 2024, while the balance of certificates of deposit from joint-stock banks accounts for 68.75% of the quota in 2024. ② The supply of government bonds in the fourth quarter will significantly decrease compared to the third quarter, and the scale of interbank certificates of deposit maturing will also decrease significantly.
Crude oil product analysis at noon: hurricanes, sanctions, Middle East turmoil, will oil prices make waves again?
Middle East tensions escalate, Brent crude oil futures prices slightly rise... Iraq, Jordan, and Egypt condemn Israel's "aggression"... Hurricane Helen approaching, usa Gulf of Mexico crude oil production greatly reduced...