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Dah Sing Wen Jiawei: In October, the decline in retail sales was less than expected, but it is still relatively weak.
Hong Kong's retail sales value in October fell by 2.9% year-on-year, marking the eighth consecutive month of decline. Dah Sing Financial Conglomerates' Chief Economist and Strategy Officer, Kelvin Wong, stated that the rate of decline narrowed to the smallest this year and was lower than the market's expected 5.5% and Dah Sing's 6.1%. Wong believes that the decline in Hong Kong's retail sales has somewhat narrowed, but still remains weak. In October, there was noticeable improvement in electrical appliances and other durable consumer goods, possibly due to the launch of new smartphones and video games. The change in consumption patterns of Hong Kong people shopping in the mainland and mainland visitors shopping in Hong Kong is expected to continue impacting the development of the retail trade industry in Hong Kong in the medium to long term. The Hong Kong stock market surged at the end of September to early October but has since experienced a slight downturn.
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The latest unemployment rate in Hong Kong has slightly risen to 3.1%. Dah Sing: There is limited space for further increases in the short term.
The Census and Statistics Department of the government released the latest labor force statistics yesterday (18th), with the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate rising from 3% in July to September this year to 3.1% in August to October, while the market had initially expected it to remain at 3%. Dah Sing Financial Conglomerates' Chief Economist and Strategy Officer, Wen Jiawei, expects that the unemployment rate in Hong Kong may continue to hover around 3% by the end of the year. Following the rate cut in the USA and multiple stimulus measures introduced by the mainland, it may help improve the local business environment and stabilize the job market atmosphere in Hong Kong. Wen Jiawei also noted that the Hong Kong government will increase investment in the innovation and technology industry in its policy address.
The Monetary Authority borrowed 0.1 billion yuan from banks through the discount window.
The Hong Kong Monetary Authority disposed of 0.1 billion yuan of overnight liquidity to banks through the discount window last Friday (15th), and the funds returned today (18th), causing the total system balance of banks to fall to 44.799 billion yuan.
In the third quarter, Hong Kong's real GDP grew by 1.8% year-on-year. Dah sing: The annual economic growth forecast has been revised down to 2.6%.
The government released the "Economic Report for the Third Quarter of 2024" and the revised figures for the local Gross Domestic Product (GDP) last Friday (15th). Among them, the real local GDP grew by 1.8% year-on-year in the third quarter, down from 3.2% in the previous quarter. For the first three quarters combined, the real local GDP increased by 2.6% year-on-year. Seasonally adjusted, the real local GDP fell by 1.1% quarter-on-quarter in the third quarter. Wan Ka-wai, chief economist and strategist of dah sing financial conglomerates, stated that considering the further weakening of local exports and the lack of improvement in domestic demand, the forecast for the overall economic growth of the region for this year has been adjusted downwards.
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