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Vanguard Extended Duration Treasury ETF Newsroom
After December, will the Federal Reserve change its interest rate cut pace?
Wall Street economists generally believe that the rapid pace of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve will not continue into 2025, and may instead become a rate cut at every other meeting.
Daiwa's outlook for the US economy in 2025: the era of 'high inflation, slow growth' is coming, interest rate cuts entering the 'slow lane'.
Morgan Stanley believes that Trump's immigration and tariff policies will lead the usa economy to face the dual challenges of slowing growth and persistent inflation next year: GDP growth is expected to slow to 1.9%, while core PCE inflation will remain high at 2.5%. The Federal Reserve will remain cautious about the interest rate path and is expected to begin to pause interest rate cuts in the second quarter of next year.
SA Sentiment: Is Lowering Taxes a Good Idea for the Economy?
How will Trump 2.0 policies affect global capital markets? Bank of America Merrill Lynch lists three possible scenarios that may arise.
Bank of America Merrill Lynch believes that in the best-case scenario, the US GDP growth rate will exceed 3%, the US dollar will be slightly strong, and the gold price will be relatively low; in the worst-case scenario, aggressive tariff policies will impact global trade, exacerbate the risk of US recession, and cause a sharp decline in US stocks; in the tail risk scenario, the US economy will fall into stagflation, the US dollar will weaken across the board, and gold and cryptos will benefit.
The U.S. National Debt Has Reached $36T. Will the DOGE Help Fix It?
The 4.5% U.S. bond yield is too tempting! Are traders starting to enter the market and bottom-fish?
Some analysts predict that 4.25%-4.5% will be a reasonable range for the 10-year US Treasury bond yield. If it rises to 5%, it will be time to consider increasing positions.
Treasury Yields Rise as Prospects for the U.S. Economy See Traders Trim Rate Cut Bets
Treasury Yields Fall as Investors Await Data for Clues About the Economy
US Blue-Chip Bond Issuance Reaches Second-Highest Level Ever
This Fed-based Market Signal Is Flashing a Warning for the First Time in Over a Decade. Here's Why It Matters.
Dollar, Treasury Yields Could Correct Lower -- Market Talk
German Bunds, U.S. Treasurys Seek Near-Term Direction -- Market Talk
Bank of America’s Hartnett: The investment market shifted before the inauguration in January, allocating to U.S. treasuries, Central and Eastern European stock markets, and gold.
Hartnett stated that as american financial conditions tighten, investors' expectations for usa growth and inflation increase, leading to a shift in the belief of substantial shareholding in american stocks. It is recommended that investors adjust their investment portfolios before Inauguration Day in January, focusing on chinese and european stock markets as well as gold; if the yield rises to 5%, buy US Treasury bonds.
Treasuries See 2024 Gains Dwindle With December Fed Cut at Risk
Traders, don't panic! The tariff issue will actually not impact the Federal Reserve.
Castle Securities believes that the Federal Reserve's policy is different from the short-term tariff effects and is more likely to overlook the impact of tariffs.
Will "Trump 2.0" destroy the U.S. dollar hegemony? Nomura: The risk of rising U.S. Treasury yields is much greater than a significant depreciation of the dollar.
Nomura believes that as the USA's external liabilities soar, the safety of dollar assets is being questioned, and foreign investors may seek higher returns, thereby pushing up US interest rates. In the long run, the risk of US long-term bond yield rising seems much higher than the risk of a significant devaluation of the dollar.
U.S. Two-30-Year Treasury Yield Spread Has Room to Widen -- Market Talk
Be cautious! A new wave of inflation may be on the way.
Greenlight Capital's President David Einhorn expressed that the election results are good for avoiding the political stability issues he was worried about not long ago. However, in terms of the economy, he expects that Trump's second term policies will bring about higher inflation, thus leading to a bigger problem.
The International Finance Association warns: U.S. debt will 'explode' after Trump takes office!
The International Finance Association pointed out that Trump is very likely to make the US debt reach over 150% of GDP...
The Republican Party won a majority of seats in the House, but the slim advantage brings challenges.
House Republicans are expected to win a majority of seats in the next Congress, giving them unified control that allows Trump to have more say in budget and tax battles. However, given that the Republican majority is expected to be narrow and internal consensus may be difficult to achieve, this could hinder their efforts to advance Trump's agenda.