Three expected differences of Trump 2.0.
Source: Xue Tao Macro Notes Author: Tianfeng Macro Song Xuetao. The market's perception of Trump's second term has formed increasingly fragmented expectations in terms of policy implementation and specific policy impacts. Currently, the market universally expects better outcomes next year, which requires caution. In the first month after the election, from the unexpectedly strong cabinet selections to the sudden announcement of considering tariffs on Canada and Mexico, the uncertainty and complexity of Trump 2.0 are fully demonstrated. This increases the difficulty for the market to predict the implementation and impact of Trump 2.0 policies, creating some increasingly fragmented expectation gaps. The first type of expectation gap is contradictory policies leading to...
Afternoon Crude Oil Product analysis: USA crude oil inventories have plummeted, can oil prices continue to rise?
The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported that for the week ending December 6, US Crude Oil Product inventories decreased by X thousand barrels...
OPEC has lowered the forecast for this year's global oil demand growth for the fifth consecutive month.
The oil organization (OPEC) released its monthly report, lowering the global oil demand growth forecast for this year for the fifth consecutive month, with the largest downward adjustment among the five revisions.
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OPEC has cut its oil demand forecast for the fifth consecutive month, with the largest reduction to date.
OPEC has lowered its forecast for Consumer growth in 2024 by 0.21 million barrels per day to 1.6 million barrels per day. Since July, OPEC has reduced its forecast by 27%. Analysts believe that OPEC's forecast still exceeds the general market expectations and there is a gap with this year's actual Consumer data.
OPEC Further Trims Oil-Demand Forecast After Output-Hike Delay
Signals of deregulation in the Energy industry? Trump: Invest 1 billion in the USA, your company can receive expedited government approval.
Trump posts that the expedited approvals and permits include but are not limited to environmental aspects. Comments suggest that fast tracking may help him achieve his goal of increasing Oil & Gas development and reducing regulations, which is what he referred to as "we need to drill" during the October campaign.
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Midday crude oil analysis: How is the price trend of Brent crude oil under the condition of oversupply?
Despite the ongoing geopolitical tensions, analysts have further lowered their price forecasts for 2025 due to the expectation of a supply surplus next year.
Morgan Stanley's outlook for the 2025 bulk market: gold is the preferred hedge aiming for 3000 dollars, demand supports a V-shaped rebound in industrial metals, and crude oil product continues to fall due to oversupply.
Morgan Stanley forecasts that gold prices will rise to 3,000 dollars per ounce next year, considering potential deficit expansion, silver and platinum may rise to 38 dollars per ounce and 1,200 dollars per ounce respectively. The crude oil market is expected to shift from this year's supply-demand balance to a surplus of 1.3 million barrels per day, with Brent and WTI crude oil prices expected to drop to 70 dollars and 64 dollars respectively by the end of next year.
Not only working hard for nothing but also losing money! Bank of America: OPEC+ will lose more market share.
The usa thinks that OPEC+'s decision to delay production increases is unlikely to boost oil prices, and will instead hand over more market share to other oil-producing countries, including the usa.
Saudi Arabia's big move! Lowering all oil prices for Asia in January 2025.
According to the latest news, Saudi Aramco announced a reduction in all oil prices for Asia in January 2025, with the official price of Arab light crude oil reduced by 80 cents per barrel, set at a premium of $0.9 over the average price of Oman/Dubai (previously a premium of $1.7).
It has barely held on by extending production cuts, but how much longer can OPEC+ last?
HSBC believes that if OPEC+ cancels the "extra voluntary" production cut plan as scheduled in March 2026, it will cause the overproduction of crude oil products to expand to 1.2 million barrels per day, further putting downward pressure on oil prices. This means that the situation where global crude oil market supply exceeds demand will continue until 2026, at which time OPEC+ may also have no "room" to cancel the production cut plan.