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UBS Group: The outlook for the US stock market remains optimistic, with the S&P 500 Index potentially reaching 6,600 points by the end of next year.
Glory Exchange reported on December 21 that UBS Group stated in its Research Reports that in the context of a strong USA economy, optimism about AI, and future growth-promoting policies in the USA, the outlook for the USA stock market remains optimistic. We anticipate that the S&P 500 Index will reach 6,600 points by the end of 2025. Investors may consider using structured strategies to cope with volatility. We believe that Gold remains an effective tool for portfolio hedging in the context of geopolitical tensions.
Is the Federal Reserve turning hawkish? Morgan Stanley: I have seen this episode!
Morgan Stanley stated that the timing and magnitude of interest rate cuts depend on the implementation progress of the restrictive policies of the new Trump administration. However, the impact of these policies on economic activity may also be delayed. Therefore, while the Federal Reserve is currently hawkish, it may turn dovish later.
Why did the U.S. stock market rebound significantly? It comes from the key statements of this dovish Federal Reserve member.
Previously, he hinted that there might be a slowdown in the pace of interest rate cuts in 2024, which once sparked a reduction in market expectations for interest rate cuts next year. After seeing the latest inflation data, his recent remarks reaffirmed support for interest rate cuts, which undoubtedly provided a boost to the market.
Dominant market "narrative": Powell VS Trump.
After the Federal Reserve announced its interest rate decision, the U.S. stock market nearly erased all the gains since Election Day, reflecting a divergence in market narratives: last month's surging "Trump narrative" has cooled down, while the Federal Reserve's "hawkish" stance has shifted market focus back to inflation factors.
The Federal Reserve's "third-in-command": It is expected that interest rates will continue to be cut in the future, and the impact of Trump's policies has begun to be considered.
①Williams stated that he expects the Federal Reserve to implement more interest rate cuts, but the decision on rate cuts will depend on subsequent data, as monetary policy still suppresses economic growth momentum; ②Williams acknowledged that the impact of Trump's policy agenda has begun to influence his economic outlook.
The "farce" of the USA government shutdown crisis is over! The Senate has passed a stopgap spending bill.
The bill ensures that the USA federal government continues to receive operational funding, extending the funding period from this Friday night to mid-March next year.