Is the market 'selling the first interest rate cut'? Bank of America: Bullish on defensive stocks, gold, and bonds in the second half of the year.
Hartnett believes that the probability of a "hard landing" in the United States is generally underestimated, even if the Federal Reserve only lowers interest rates by 25 basis points for the first time, it will still significantly lower interest rates. He believes that the most advantageous course of action now is to "sell the first interest rate cut" and wait for a better opportunity to enter the market for risk assets.
Week Ahead | Heavy blow of US CPI data; First face-to-face confrontation between Trump and Harris, Apple and Huawei conferences on the same day.
The Federal Reserve enters a 'quiet period', while the European Central Bank will announce its interest rate decision. The US stock earnings season is coming to an end, with performance from companies such as Oracle and Gamestop worth paying attention to.
This week's global market: A "miniature version" of August?
This week (September 2, 2024 to September 6, 2024, the same below), the global asset class linkage and volatility once again magnified, to some extent seems to be a "miniature version" of the same period in August 2024: The yen exchange rate rapidly appreciated, major global stock indices, csi commodity equity index, and VIX volatility rose again.
The 'September Curse' returns? Panic index soars nearly 50%, and the volatility of US stocks may continue.
As the interest rate cuts, can the US bond interest rates continue to decline?
Before the interest rate cut landed, the slope of the US bond yield declined even more, but after the interest rate cut landed, the downward slope slowed down. At the time of the interest rate cut, the trading factors such as the 'rush' of interest rate cut trading and the increase in short positions may cause short-term rebound in US bond yields, while the rebound magnitude of long-term US bond yields may be even greater.
USA's employment in August was neither good nor bad, and the extent of the interest rate cut still remains uncertain.
Guosheng Securities believes that the month-on-month improvement in US employment in August, but the absolute level is still weak, and it has not completely dispelled the market's concerns about recession. There is still suspense about whether the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 50bp or 25bp at the meeting on September 18th, with a focus on the release of US CPI for August on September 11th.