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The soaring US Treasury yield has impacted the stock market; how should this be addressed? The following events deserve close attention!
This wave of decline is closely related to the rise in U.S. Treasury yields. Since Federal Reserve Chairman Powell clearly shifted focus to inflation at the December meeting last year, the increase in Treasury yields has put pressure on the U.S. stock market.
The yield on the United Kingdom 30-year government bonds has risen to 5.472%, the highest since 1998.
The UK 30-Year Treasury Notes Yield rose to 5.472%, reaching its highest level since 1998, with an increase of 6 basis points during the day. The UK 10-Year Treasury Notes Yield climbed 6 basis points to 4.90%. Last week, the UK bond market was tumultuous, with Bonds facing significant selling pressure, causing the British Pound Exchange Rates to plummet. On Monday (January 13), in the Asian market, the British Pound continued to decline against the US Dollar, hitting a low of 1.2125, marking a new low since November 2023. Although the situation began to stabilize in the latter half of last week, the British Pound still closed significantly weaker. Meanwhile, uneven data led to fluctuations in the Euro last week; despite these adverse factors, the Euro against the British Pound.
Goldman Sachs expects the dollar to rise by 5% or more, and the euro against the dollar is likely to fall below parity within six months.
Goldman Sachs has raised its forecast for the USA dollar due to a strong USA economy and potential increases in tariffs, which may slow down MMF easing policies. Strategists such as Kamakshya Trivedi wrote in a report, "We expect the USA dollar to rise by about 5% in the next year due to the implementation of new tariffs and the continued strong performance of the USA." Even with this adjustment in the forecast, "We still believe the risks lean towards further strengthening of the USA dollar." This is the second time Goldman Sachs has raised its forecast for the USA dollar in about two months, mainly due to the USA's persistent strong growth and President-elect Trump's plans to impose tariffs, which may exacerbate inflation.
Barclays expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in June 2025, down from a previous prediction of two rate cuts.
Barclays expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in June 2025, while previously predicting two cuts in March and June. The much better-than-expected non-farm payrolls data released last week led Wall Street's major banks to reduce their rate cut bets. Bank of America had previously expected two rate cuts of 25 basis points each this year, but now believes there will be none, and it may instead raise rates. Among Wall Street's major banks, Citigroup remains the most optimistic about interest rate cuts, still expecting five cuts of 25 basis points each, but the timing will start in May instead of the previously expected January. Goldman Sachs predicts there will be two rate cuts this year, rather than three.
Express News | Goldman Sachs predicts that USA sanctions against Russia could push oil prices above $85 per barrel.
Express News | Goldman Sachs strategists maintain an overweight rating on online retail, media, and Medical Care stocks, while upgrading the rating of CSI Leading Consumption and Services Index stocks to overweight.