Believe that a rate cut is coming soon! The long position of U.S. bonds increases every day in July.
Is the Fed's interest rate cut really a good thing that is about to happen? Although Fed Chairman Powell was reluctant to reveal too many details in his testimony on the first day of his trip to Capitol Hill this week, investors in the US bond market seem to be ready for it: more traders are betting that the US bond market will continue to rise.
“Rate cut trade” sweeps the US bond market! Traders have been betting on the rebound of US bonds since July.
As Federal Reserve Chairman Powell emphasized the importance of U.S. inflation data, traders are betting on a rebound in the $27 trillion U.S. bond market.
Ishares Iboxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond Etf Options Spot-On: On July 9th, 314.22K Contracts Were Traded, With 5.21 Million Open Interest
On July 9th ET, $Ishares Iboxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond Etf(HYG.US)$ had active options trading, with a total trading volume of 314.22K options for the day, of which put options accounted for 71.37
The mystery of the US interest rate cut remains to be seen! How will Powell "fight with Congress" during his trip to Capitol Hill tonight?
① In the next two days, Powell will personally visit Capitol Hill to face the members of Congress. ② According to the schedule, at 22:00 Beijing time tonight, Powell will be the first to deliver semi-annual monetary policy testimony to the Senate Banking Committee. ③ At the same time tomorrow night, Powell will also visit the Financial Services Committee of the House of Representatives.
Ishares Iboxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond Etf Options Spot-On: On July 8th, 153.47K Contracts Were Traded, With 5.17 Million Open Interest
On July 8th ET, $Ishares Iboxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond Etf(HYG.US)$ had active options trading, with a total trading volume of 153.47K options for the day, of which put options accounted for 87.11
Research institutions: The US economy will eventually fall into recession, and the S&P 500 index may plummet 32% in 2025.
On Monday, July 8th, the most pessimistic strategist on Wall Street stated that due to the Fed's inability to prevent economic recession, the stock market will collapse by 32% in 2025.
Powell is about to "bravely" enter Capitol Hill! These points are worth noting.
This hearing will be Powell's last public speech before the US presidential election, and its importance is self-evident...
USD: Inflation and Powell in Focus This Week – ING
The dollar is modestly stronger out of the weekend as a surprise win of the left-wing alliance in the French second-round legislative elections sent European currencies lower and fuelled some safe-haven demand, with the Japanese Yen (JPY) and Swiss franc (CHF) rising, ING’s analyst Francesco Pesole suggests.
China's central bank suddenly announced! The French election brought a 'black swan'. This man is definitely worth paying attention to this week.
On Monday, July 8, global stock markets approached historic highs, but due to concerns over China's economic growth and possible political deadlock in France, investor sentiment was slightly cautious, which weakened the optimism that the Federal Reserve could cut interest rates as early as September.
"Only God can make me drop out!" Biden passionately promises to continue the campaign, but he misspoke again this time.
On Friday, US Eastern Time, Biden stated in an interview that he will continue to run for the presidency, and that he is the best candidate to stop Trump from returning to the White House in November. However, it was a bit awkward that he misspoke during this 22-minute interview. On Monday next week, US Eastern Time, several Democratic congressmen will have a meeting to discuss persuading Biden to drop out of the race.
Ishares Iboxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond Etf Options Spot-On: On July 5th, 121.3K Contracts Were Traded, With 5.15 Million Open Interest
On July 5th ET, $Ishares Iboxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond Etf(HYG.US)$ had active options trading, with a total trading volume of 121.3K options for the day, of which put options accounted for 68.69%
Unexpected June non-farm data in USA! The gold market is undergoing a "heaven-and-earth needle" phenomenon.
Did the unexpected increase in the unemployment rate in the United States in June stabilize the Fed's interest rate cut in September?
The Federal Reserve's dovish tone is rising! During the interest rate cut cycle, which assets are worth paying attention to?
Based on the June dot plot, the Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates only once. Nevertheless, 7 Wall Street banks expect the Fed to cut interest rates twice this year, a total of 50bps. Looking at the time of the first rate cut, more than half of institutions anticipate it will happen in September.
Two top global assessment institutions warn of the risk of a US-European debt explosion.
Debt in the United States and other developed countries continues to rise, and only severe market pressure can change this trend.
Ishares Iboxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond Etf Options Spot-On: On July 3rd, 101.55K Contracts Were Traded, With 5.11 Million Open Interest
On July 3rd ET, $Ishares Iboxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond Etf(HYG.US)$ had active options trading, with a total trading volume of 101.55K options for the day, of which put options accounted for 77.9%
First-line response to the "Trump trade": after the first debate, traders aggressively bought short-term bonds and sold long-term bonds.
This week, the yield curve steepened by about 13 basis points due to the widening spread between the two-year and ten-year Treasury bond yields, marking the largest two-day volatility since October of last year.
Powell's latest statement: significant progress in controlling inflation, but refuses to reveal whether interest rates will be cut in September.
Despite avoiding political issues, Powell still emphasized that the huge fiscal deficit of the USA government is difficult to sustain.
Trump's chances of winning the election are rising, and traders are heavily betting on the steepening of the US bond yield curve.
As Wall Street adjusts to the possibility of Trump returning to the White House, traders in the $27 trillion US bond market are betting on a rise in long-term bond yields.
Ishares Iboxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond Etf Options Spot-On: On July 2nd, 368.34K Contracts Were Traded, With 4.92 Million Open Interest
On July 2nd ET, $Ishares Iboxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond Etf(HYG.US)$ had active options trading, with a total trading volume of 368.34K options for the day, of which put options accounted for 82.47
Yield Curve Narrows to Its Tightest Level in 2-months