As the interest rate cuts, can the US bond interest rates continue to decline?
Before the interest rate cut landed, the slope of the US bond yield declined even more, but after the interest rate cut landed, the downward slope slowed down. At the time of the interest rate cut, the trading factors such as the 'rush' of interest rate cut trading and the increase in short positions may cause short-term rebound in US bond yields, while the rebound magnitude of long-term US bond yields may be even greater.
The theory of "bad news = good news" is gradually disintegrating, and the US stock market is returning to a classic framework: driven by performance and the economy.
Wall Street traders suddenly focus on future economic risks; stocks resume selling off after decoupling from bonds and csi commodity equity index, jpmorgan's model shows different economic recession probabilities across different assets.
How does Goldman Sachs view the "three handles" and Powell's statement? Goldman Sachs: The leadership of the Federal Reserve believes that a 25 basis point rate cut in September is the benchmark scenario.
The non-farm payroll data in August was mixed, and the extent of interest rate cuts in September remains uncertain. Goldman Sachs interprets from statements by senior officials of the Federal Reserve that the Fed leadership believes a 25 basis point rate cut in September is the baseline scenario, but if the labor market continues to deteriorate, they are willing to cut rates by 50 basis points at subsequent meetings.
Goldman Sees Fed Base Case for 25bp Rate Cut in Speeches by Bank Leaders Waller, Williams
Ishares Iboxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond Etf Options Spot-On: On September 6th, 364.88K Contracts Were Traded, With 6.04 Million Open Interest
On September 6th ET, $Ishares Iboxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond Etf(HYG.US)$ had active options trading, with a total trading volume of 364.88K options for the day, of which put options accounted
Record volume! The heavyweight employment report and the high-ranking officials of the Fed "ignite the wind," betting on a surge in futures trading.
In August, the United States added fewer non-farm jobs than expected. Federal Reserve official Bullard, one of the most influential officials, said that it is crucial to start cutting interest rates in September and has an open attitude towards the magnitude and speed of the rate cut. "New Federal Reserve News Agency" interpreted Bullard's speech as indicating his inclination to support an initial 25 basis point rate cut.