How will Trump 2.0 policies affect global capital markets? Bank of America Merrill Lynch lists three possible scenarios that may arise.
Bank of America Merrill Lynch believes that in the best-case scenario, the US GDP growth rate will exceed 3%, the US dollar will be slightly strong, and the gold price will be relatively low; in the worst-case scenario, aggressive tariff policies will impact global trade, exacerbate the risk of US recession, and cause a sharp decline in US stocks; in the tail risk scenario, the US economy will fall into stagflation, the US dollar will weaken across the board, and gold and cryptos will benefit.
The 4.5% U.S. bond yield is too tempting! Are traders starting to enter the market and bottom-fish?
Some analysts predict that 4.25%-4.5% will be a reasonable range for the 10-year US Treasury bond yield. If it rises to 5%, it will be time to consider increasing positions.
Great Wall Securities: patiently waiting for the end of inflation trade, usd index and US bond yields may remain strong.
In the short term, it is recommended to continue focusing on the large cap indices such as the Dow Jones Industrial Average and Nasdaq 100, as well as the more elastic Russell 2000 pure value. Gold prices may experience short-term fluctuations at high levels, supported by risk aversion sentiment.
The selling spree of U.S. bonds is receding! As the "anchor of global asset pricing" reaches 4.5%, traders are coming in to "buy the dip."
The U.S. bond market has stopped its volatility, with buyers eagerly chasing a 4.5% yield.
Bond Market Halts Brutal Run as Buyers Pounce on 4.5% Yields
Ishares Iboxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond Etf Options Spot-On: On November 22nd, 170.39K Contracts Were Traded, With 5.05 Million Open Interest
On November 22nd ET, $Ishares Iboxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond Etf(HYG.US)$ had active options trading, with a total trading volume of 170.39K options for the day, of which put options accounted