US Treasury bonds are at risk of deep selling, with the 10-year US Treasury yield potentially rising to 4.9%.
Options traders are betting that U.S. Treasuries will face a deep sell-off within the next few weeks, and the upcoming major events will be key to these bets.
Japanese Yen Expected to Slide as US Policy Drives Dollar Higher - BofA
The atmosphere changed after Trump's election: the Federal Reserve minutes indicated that many supported a "gradual" rate cut, and officials raised the possibility of pausing actions.
The 'New Federal Reserve News Agency' indicated that the minutes suggest that if inflation progress stalls, there will be more cautious interest rate cuts; Fed officials discussed a technical reduction of the ON RRP rate by 5 basis points at the 'next meeting'.
Ishares Iboxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond Etf Options Spot-On: On November 26th, 272.37K Contracts Were Traded, With 5.08 Million Open Interest
On November 26th ET, $Ishares Iboxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond Etf(HYG.US)$ had active options trading, with a total trading volume of 272.37K options for the day, of which put options accounted
Where Is the US10Y Headed? Piper Sandler & Cantor Fitzgerald Offer up Differing Views
Daiwa's outlook for the US economy in 2025: the era of 'high inflation, slow growth' is coming, interest rate cuts entering the 'slow lane'.
Morgan Stanley believes that Trump's immigration and tariff policies will lead the usa economy to face the dual challenges of slowing growth and persistent inflation next year: GDP growth is expected to slow to 1.9%, while core PCE inflation will remain high at 2.5%. The Federal Reserve will remain cautious about the interest rate path and is expected to begin to pause interest rate cuts in the second quarter of next year.
Will Trump's policies severely damage the usa economy? Former Treasury Secretary Summers raised two major concerns.
①Former US Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers warned that the economic policies of the Trump administration could trigger serious inflation shocks; ②He emphasized the two main concerns about the proposed economic agenda: massive demand-side stimulus and severe supply-side interruptions; ③Summers pointed out that if all of Trump's policies were implemented, the inflationary stimulus would far exceed any plans set by President Biden.
What does the nomination of Bessent by the USA Secretary of the Treasury mean for USA taxes and interest rates?
The reform of tax policies by Bencent may have to wait until the confirmation hearings for clarity, and his impact on the cost of consumer lending may be limited.
A new record! The usa federal debt surpasses 36 trillion dollars, and Trump's "Department of Efficiency" takes over the hot potato.
The usa debt has reached 36 trillion dollars, a historic high.
What does Treasury Secretary Yellen mean by US taxation, interest rates, and US debt?
Analysis shows that, in terms of tax policies, attention is focused on Bezent's testimony at the hearing; Bezent's remarks have little impact on interest rates, the key is how much the White House can leverage Bezent's reputation to prevent bond market fluctuations, Bezent may use 'unconventional' measures regarding the US debt ceiling issue. In addition, he will also play an important role in cryptocurrency regulation.
In the past 24 hours, three major events are igniting the global market!
In the past 24 hours, investors in various fields including the stock market, bond market, foreign exchange market, and csi commodity equity index market have identified key “themes” affecting their respective markets. And behind all these market trends, it can actually be attributed to three major events.
Ishares Iboxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond Etf Options Spot-On: On November 25th, 130.54K Contracts Were Traded, With 5.1 Million Open Interest
On November 25th ET, $Ishares Iboxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond Etf(HYG.US)$ had active options trading, with a total trading volume of 130.54K options for the day, of which put options accounted
How will Trump 2.0 policies affect global capital markets? Bank of America Merrill Lynch lists three possible scenarios that may arise.
Bank of America Merrill Lynch believes that in the best-case scenario, the US GDP growth rate will exceed 3%, the US dollar will be slightly strong, and the gold price will be relatively low; in the worst-case scenario, aggressive tariff policies will impact global trade, exacerbate the risk of US recession, and cause a sharp decline in US stocks; in the tail risk scenario, the US economy will fall into stagflation, the US dollar will weaken across the board, and gold and cryptos will benefit.
The 4.5% U.S. bond yield is too tempting! Are traders starting to enter the market and bottom-fish?
Some analysts predict that 4.25%-4.5% will be a reasonable range for the 10-year US Treasury bond yield. If it rises to 5%, it will be time to consider increasing positions.
Great Wall Securities: patiently waiting for the end of inflation trade, usd index and US bond yields may remain strong.
In the short term, it is recommended to continue focusing on the large cap indices such as the Dow Jones Industrial Average and Nasdaq 100, as well as the more elastic Russell 2000 pure value. Gold prices may experience short-term fluctuations at high levels, supported by risk aversion sentiment.
The selling spree of U.S. bonds is receding! As the "anchor of global asset pricing" reaches 4.5%, traders are coming in to "buy the dip."
The U.S. bond market has stopped its volatility, with buyers eagerly chasing a 4.5% yield.
Bond Market Halts Brutal Run as Buyers Pounce on 4.5% Yields
Ishares Iboxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond Etf Options Spot-On: On November 22nd, 170.39K Contracts Were Traded, With 5.05 Million Open Interest
On November 22nd ET, $Ishares Iboxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond Etf(HYG.US)$ had active options trading, with a total trading volume of 170.39K options for the day, of which put options accounted
Trump is considering letting Walsh serve as Treasury Secretary first, and then as Chairman of the Federal Reserve.
Some informed sources indicate that Trump is considering appointing Bessent to lead the White House Economic Council. If Powell becomes the chairman of the Federal Reserve, Trump will nominate Bessent to be the Secretary of the Treasury later in his term.
Become the Treasury Secretary first for a year before assuming the position of Chairman of the Federal Reserve? It is rumored that Trump has set his sights on Kevin Warsh.
According to informed sources, the newly elected president Trump has proposed to choose financier Kevin Warsh as the Secretary of the Treasury; and when the term of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell ends in 2026, Warsh may also be nominated as the Chair of the Federal Reserve.