Year-end review of US debt: Will 2024 be full of twists and turns for the "anchor of Global asset pricing"? Will 2025 be wilder than 2023?

The dreaded "term premium" that sends shivers through the financial markets is making a comeback, and the "anchor of Global Asset pricing" is brewing a wave of even wilder growth than the surge of over 5% seen in 2023.

Zhitong Finance18:28

What is the outlook for the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts in 2025? Trump's policies still impose significant uncertainty.

Currently, the Federal Reserve may need to see the impact of the series of economic policies, including import tariffs, proposed by President-elect Donald Trump before it can raise its forecasts for inflation and interest rate changes in the first half of next year.

Zhitong Finance10:24

Can U.S. stocks continue to rise? Research institutions say it depends on the performance of U.S. bonds and the dollar.

Tom Essaye, the founder of Sevens Report Research, pointed out in this week's report that based on recent trading levels, the dollar currently poses only a "slight" resistance to U.S. stocks, while the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield presents a "moderate" resistance; if the dollar and bond yields continue to rise from now on, it will cause greater trouble for U.S. stocks.

cls.cn09:41

U.S. bonds: The first stab in the back of Trump?

Shao Xiang from Minsheng Macro stated that since his election victory, Trump has been concerned about the U.S. stock market and values the U.S. dollar, but seems to be particularly unconcerned about U.S. Treasury bonds, which could bring significant trouble to both the Trump administration and the market next year. The pressure from maturing U.S. debt next year is considerable (approximately 7.8 trillion U.S. dollars for the whole year), and the already high term premium may worsen the situation, with the Federal Reserve potentially making matters worse.

Chuan Reading Global Macroeconomics08:12

Futu Morning Report | Powell's "Christmas gift"! U.S. long-term bond yields hit a seven-month high; Hong Kong stocks continue to be closed for the Christmas holiday today, U.S. stocks open.

The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in January next year is 91.4%; the State Council: Expand the areas of special Bonds investment, incorporating low-altitude economy, computing equipment, and supporting infrastructure into the project capital requirements; in 2024, a "wave of resignations" among CEOs of publicly listed companies in the USA will occur.

Futu News07:49

Morgan Stanley selected the "Top 10 Surprises for 2025": The depreciation of the dollar ranks first.

Morgan Stanley believes that the fiscal deficit in the USA is expected to decrease next year, while the fiscal deficits in China and Germany are likely to increase, which may lead to a convergence of interest rates between the USA and Europe, subsequently triggering a significant depreciation of the dollar. In addition, Morgan Stanley also anticipates a strong recovery in the demand for US Treasury bonds, that the euro is expected to "shine brightly," and that the Bank of England may shorten the interest rate cut cycle.

wallstreetcnDec 25 21:47