Week Ahead | Heavy blow of US CPI data; First face-to-face confrontation between Trump and Harris, Apple and Huawei conferences on the same day.
The Federal Reserve enters a 'quiet period', while the European Central Bank will announce its interest rate decision. The US stock earnings season is coming to an end, with performance from companies such as Oracle and Gamestop worth paying attention to.
This week's global market: A "miniature version" of August?
This week (September 2, 2024 to September 6, 2024, the same below), the global asset class linkage and volatility once again magnified, to some extent seems to be a "miniature version" of the same period in August 2024: The yen exchange rate rapidly appreciated, major global stock indices, csi commodity equity index, and VIX volatility rose again.
The 'September Curse' returns? Panic index soars nearly 50%, and the volatility of US stocks may continue.
As the interest rate cuts, can the US bond interest rates continue to decline?
Before the interest rate cut landed, the slope of the US bond yield declined even more, but after the interest rate cut landed, the downward slope slowed down. At the time of the interest rate cut, the trading factors such as the 'rush' of interest rate cut trading and the increase in short positions may cause short-term rebound in US bond yields, while the rebound magnitude of long-term US bond yields may be even greater.
Is the market 'selling the first interest rate cut'? Bank of America: Bullish on defensive stocks, gold, and bonds in the second half of the year.
Hartnett believes that the probability of a "hard landing" in the United States is generally underestimated, even if the Federal Reserve only lowers interest rates by 25 basis points for the first time, it will still significantly lower interest rates. He believes that the most advantageous course of action now is to "sell the first interest rate cut" and wait for a better opportunity to enter the market for risk assets.
USA's employment in August was neither good nor bad, and the extent of the interest rate cut still remains uncertain.
Guosheng Securities believes that the month-on-month improvement in US employment in August, but the absolute level is still weak, and it has not completely dispelled the market's concerns about recession. There is still suspense about whether the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 50bp or 25bp at the meeting on September 18th, with a focus on the release of US CPI for August on September 11th.
Small-cap Earnings in Q2 Seen Holding Up, to Get More Competitive With Large
The suspense of the Fed's interest rate cut in September may have to wait until the last moment to be revealed! The U.S. stock market wants to see a 25 basis point cut.
The latest employment data did not resolve the market's debate over the extent of the Fed's interest rate cut in September; however, the employment report did intensify concerns about a cooling labor market.
The return of the "Big Brother" of American retail investors! A picture triggers the volatility of multiple internet celebrity stocks, and certain accounts make nearly 4 million profit.
①The "Roaring Kitten" once again posted a mysterious image on social media platform X after a two-month hiatus. ②The market effect it caused has at least enabled an options trader (it's uncertain whether it's Gill himself) to make substantial profits in a short period of time.
usa Qualcomm inflation whistle-blower: non-farm report is not particularly bad, 50% probability of a 25/50 basis point rate cut on September.
Summers said that the August non-farm employment report in the United States was not particularly bad. The numbers in the non-farm report definitely didn't show any obvious weakness, but if there are concerns about the recent trend in statistics, they definitely did not provide evidence of a healthy economy.
The non-farm unemployment rate did not surprise, but the dovish tone of important officials from the Federal Reserve was loud. Why did the US stocks fall sharply on Friday?
"The New American Union News Agency" said that the non-farm payrolls cannot indicate the magnitude of the interest rate cut in September, and the Federal Reserve's voting members did not explicitly speak out about a 50 basis point rate cut in September, which may disappoint the market. Some analysts also say that the market has entered a new paradigm, shifting its focus from inflation to growth, and economic bad news is now unfavorable for the stock market.
US stocks close | On the "non-farm day", US stocks plummeted, with the Nasdaq down 2.55%, and NVIDIA down more than 4%; US bonds surged, with Brent oil hitting a nearly three-year low.
The poor non-farm payroll data in August may lead the Fed to support a significant interest rate cut. The S&P fell 1.7% for the week, dropping over 4%, while the Dow fell 1% for the week, dropping nearly 3%, and the Nasdaq fell 2.6% for the week, dropping 5.8%, entering a technical consolidation phase.
Palantir Technologies, Dell Technologies, And S&P MidCap 400 Constituent Erie Indemnity Co. Set To Join S&P 500; Will Replace American Airlines Group, Etsy And Bio-Rad Laboratories
IWM ETF Falls Friday
IShares Russell 2000 ETF Options Spot-On: On September 6th, 1.83 Million Contracts Were Traded, With 14 Million Open Interest
On September 6th ET, $iShares Russell 2000 ETF(IWM.US)$ had active options trading, with a total trading volume of 1.83 million options for the day, of which put options accounted for 67.78% of the
Stocks Tumble On Jobs Data, Nasdaq 100 Eyes Worst Week In 2 Years As Semiconductors Slump: What's Driving Markets Friday?
Major Indexes Are Lower Amid a Pullback in Tech Stocks and as Investors React to Today's Jobs Data.
August non-farm payrolls: Not good, but not as bad as "expected".
The last and most important non-agricultural data before the September FOMC meeting directly determines whether the "recession panic" will intensify and whether the Fed will cut interest rates by 25bp or 50bp two weeks later. However, the results didn't completely meet the expectations of both the optimists and the pessimists. It wasn't great, but there wasn't a direct bombshell to make a 50bp rate cut a certainty.
Express News | Federal Reserve Director Woller: If the conditions are appropriate, advocating for a "precautionary" interest rate cut.
Express News | Federal Reserve Williams: I have no opinion on whether the interest rate will be cut by 25 or 50 basis points in September.