The market and the Federal Reserve's game is gradually heating up! Will tonight's non-farm payrolls determine the extent of the interest rate cut?
The analyst pointed out that Powell hinted at a 25 basis point rate cut in November and December, but if the employment data is weak, a significant rate cut plan may be put back on the agenda.
"Wall Street's most accurate strategist" boldly predicts: if non-farm payrolls meet expectations, risk assets will soar.
Bank of America's strategy team stated that supporting the "soft landing" of the US economy, non-farm data will keep US Treasury yields fluctuating within a certain range, but "explosive" data and the surge in US Treasury yields catalyzed by this data will drive market risk assets avoidance.
Is the market dovishness too loud? Non-farm will be a key element of the expected adjustment!
The market is more dovish than the Federal Reserve, and ultimately both sides will have to adjust their expectations. Tonight's non-farm payrolls report is a key data point.
The major strike at the ports in the USA has finally come to an end! Democrats can finally breathe a sigh of relief during this critical election period.
①On Thursday (October 3rd) local time, dock workers in the usa announced the end of a three-day strike; ②The temporary agreement reached by both labor and management includes a 62% salary increase for workers over the next six years; ③The end of the strike has eased the public's panic and also eliminated a potential political issue for Vice President Kamala Harris's campaign.
US Stocks Gold Rush | Silicon Valley giants speak up again for AI power usage! Nuclear power stocks VST, CEG both hit record highs; Middle East tensions ignite fuel prices, valero energy, marathon petroleum surge over 5% overnight.
In terms of leading giants hitting new highs in the US stock market, Meta rose 1.74% to the top of the rankings, exxon mobil rose 0.87%, and Fidelity Financial Services rose 0.5%.
After England and Japan took turns releasing pigeons, the situation in the Middle East became unstable. On the eve of non-farm payrolls, the US dollar has risen for four consecutive sessions!
Forex broker XTB's research director Kathleen Brooks said, "The strong risk of the September non-farm payroll report could lead to greater than usual fluctuations in the US stock market and the US dollar, with increased safe-haven sentiment and the US non-farm payroll report, it is a combination that can easily cause market turbulence."
This year, usa actively managed funds are still unable to outperform the index, simply because of underweighting Nvidia.
In 2024, it is not certain industries or even large cap stocks that dragged down actively managed funds from outperforming the market, the main culprit is only one: nvidia. Despite nvidia being the most held semiconductor stock in actively managed funds, with a holding rate of around 70%, its relative weight is still relatively 'low'.
Federal Reserve's Powell: Interest rates need to be 'substantially' cut in the next year
Chicago Fed President Evans reiterated that interest rates need to be 'substantially' reduced in the coming year.
See you tonight! The most heavyweight global macroeconomic data of the week is about to be released......
If we were to discuss the most important overseas macroeconomic data this week, then perhaps the US non-farm payroll data for September, which will be released tonight at 20:30 peking time, would be the top choice. The non-farm data is likely to be the last 'normal' employment report for the foreseeable future. How will this key employment indicator, which is expected to determine the pace of future rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, perform?
Futu Morning Post | Fund managers are entering the Chinese stock market at a record speed! The 'China Dragon' ETF lands in the US stock market; foreign capital accelerates its positions! Morgan Stanley increases its shareholding in BYD and other companies
The size of the USA money market fund has reached a record $6.46 trillion; Biden's vague stance has sparked an energy storm, causing international oil prices to soar by over 5%; just after raising funds, OpenAI secured a $4 billion credit line, with liquid assets exceeding over $10 billion.
The PMI of the US service industry soared beyond expectations, indicating a stable economy, but the issue of the dock strike cannot be ignored.
①In September, the ISM non-manufacturing purchasing managers' index recorded 54.9, the highest level since February 2023; ②The number of initial jobless claims filed last week was 0.225 million, showing a slight rebound from the previous week's 0.219 million.
U.S. stocks closed with minor declines in the three major indices, with most Chinese concept stocks pausing their rise, and bilibili dropping nearly 9%.
Some chip stocks are strong against the market, with nvidia up more than 3%; petroleum stocks are generally up, with occidental petroleum up more than 2.5%.
Express News | The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Fed in November is 62.5%.
IWM ETF Declines 0.7%
IShares Russell 2000 ETF Options Spot-On: On October 3rd, 1.26 Million Contracts Were Traded, With 11.94 Million Open Interest
On October 3rd ET, $iShares Russell 2000 ETF(IWM.US)$ had active options trading, with a total trading volume of 1.26 million options for the day, of which put options accounted for 61.0% of the
Why Gen Z Bets Big While Boomers Play It Safe: A Generational Breakdown of Market Returns
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Top Quant-rated Shipping and Marine Logistics Stocks as Port Strikes Reach Third Day
Major Indexes Are Trading Lower Following a Report Suggesting That President Biden Said the US Is "Discussing" Potential Support for Israel Striking Iran's Oil Facilities When Asked About the Issue.
U.S. stock market morning session | Nasdaq, S&P turned from decline to rise intraday; semiconductor sector strong increase, nvidia, AMD rose nearly 4%
As of the press time, the Dow Jones fell by 0.24%, the Nasdaq rose by 0.20%, and the s&p 500 rose by 0.02%.