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U.S. stock market morning session | September non-farm payroll data far exceeded expectations, with the three major indices opening higher before falling back slightly; most technology stocks rose, with AMD, tesla, and amazon up more than 2%.
As of press time, the Dow rose by 0.63%, the Nasdaq rose by 1.03%, and the s&p 500 index rose by 0.68%.
Major Indexes Are Trading Higher Following a Strong September Unemployment Rate and Nonfarm Payrolls Data.
Non-farm payrolls surged by 0.254 million people, with the unemployment rate unexpectedly falling. Has the US economy successfully achieved a "soft landing"?
USA companies exceeded all economists' expectations in recruiting numbers in September, with the unemployment rate falling unexpectedly to 4.1%; non-farm employment rose by 0.254 million people in September, the highest in six months.
S&P 500 Nears Record Highs On Hot Jobs Data: Dollar, Treasury Yields Surge As Aggressive Interest Rate Cut Hopes Fade
Express News | Traders wiped out the bet on a 50 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in November.
Nearly doubled compared to expectations! September non-farm payrolls 'exceeded expectations', is the Fed slowing down rate cuts a 'foregone conclusion'?
Powell "saves" face, and traders are now lowering their expectations for the Fed's future interest rate cuts at the next four meetings to less than 100 basis points.
Express News | After the non-farm payroll report, traders' expectations for the Federal Reserve's rate cuts in the next four meetings are less than 100 basis points.
US stock market outlook: US September non-farm data higher than expected! Three major futures indicators surge in a straight line; will Chinese concept stocks continue to climb? Morgan Stanley: If short positions cover, it will push up the upward trend.
Bank of America: China stock fund saw the second highest inflow scale in history in the past week; European Central Bank Governing Council: inflation is under control, concerns arise as labor market cools down; spirit airlines plunged 33% before the market, the company is discussing potential bankruptcy application terms.
Express News | US Sep. Non-Farm Payrolls +254000 Vs +140000 Forecast, Prior +159000; US Sep. Unemployment Rate 4.1% Vs 4.2% Forecast, Prior 4.2%
The market and the Federal Reserve's game is gradually heating up! Will tonight's non-farm payrolls determine the extent of the interest rate cut?
The analyst pointed out that Powell hinted at a 25 basis point rate cut in November and December, but if the employment data is weak, a significant rate cut plan may be put back on the agenda.
"Wall Street's most accurate strategist" boldly predicts: if non-farm payrolls meet expectations, risk assets will soar.
Bank of America's strategy team stated that supporting the "soft landing" of the US economy, non-farm data will keep US Treasury yields fluctuating within a certain range, but "explosive" data and the surge in US Treasury yields catalyzed by this data will drive market risk assets avoidance.
Is the market dovishness too loud? Non-farm will be a key element of the expected adjustment!
The market is more dovish than the Federal Reserve, and ultimately both sides will have to adjust their expectations. Tonight's non-farm payrolls report is a key data point.
The major strike at the ports in the USA has finally come to an end! Democrats can finally breathe a sigh of relief during this critical election period.
①On Thursday (October 3rd) local time, dock workers in the usa announced the end of a three-day strike; ②The temporary agreement reached by both labor and management includes a 62% salary increase for workers over the next six years; ③The end of the strike has eased the public's panic and also eliminated a potential political issue for Vice President Kamala Harris's campaign.
US Stocks Gold Rush | Silicon Valley giants speak up again for AI power usage! Nuclear power stocks VST, CEG both hit record highs; Middle East tensions ignite fuel prices, valero energy, marathon petroleum surge over 5% overnight.
In terms of leading giants hitting new highs in the US stock market, Meta rose 1.74% to the top of the rankings, exxon mobil rose 0.87%, and Fidelity Financial Services rose 0.5%.
After England and Japan took turns releasing pigeons, the situation in the Middle East became unstable. On the eve of non-farm payrolls, the US dollar has risen for four consecutive sessions!
Forex broker XTB's research director Kathleen Brooks said, "The strong risk of the September non-farm payroll report could lead to greater than usual fluctuations in the US stock market and the US dollar, with increased safe-haven sentiment and the US non-farm payroll report, it is a combination that can easily cause market turbulence."
This year, usa actively managed funds are still unable to outperform the index, simply because of underweighting Nvidia.
In 2024, it is not certain industries or even large cap stocks that dragged down actively managed funds from outperforming the market, the main culprit is only one: nvidia. Despite nvidia being the most held semiconductor stock in actively managed funds, with a holding rate of around 70%, its relative weight is still relatively 'low'.
Federal Reserve's Powell: Interest rates need to be 'substantially' cut in the next year
Chicago Fed President Evans reiterated that interest rates need to be 'substantially' reduced in the coming year.
See you tonight! The most heavyweight global macroeconomic data of the week is about to be released......
If we were to discuss the most important overseas macroeconomic data this week, then perhaps the US non-farm payroll data for September, which will be released tonight at 20:30 peking time, would be the top choice. The non-farm data is likely to be the last 'normal' employment report for the foreseeable future. How will this key employment indicator, which is expected to determine the pace of future rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, perform?
Futu Morning Post | Fund managers are entering the Chinese stock market at a record speed! The 'China Dragon' ETF lands in the US stock market; foreign capital accelerates its positions! Morgan Stanley increases its shareholding in BYD and other companies
The size of the USA money market fund has reached a record $6.46 trillion; Biden's vague stance has sparked an energy storm, causing international oil prices to soar by over 5%; just after raising funds, OpenAI secured a $4 billion credit line, with liquid assets exceeding over $10 billion.
The PMI of the US service industry soared beyond expectations, indicating a stable economy, but the issue of the dock strike cannot be ignored.
①In September, the ISM non-manufacturing purchasing managers' index recorded 54.9, the highest level since February 2023; ②The number of initial jobless claims filed last week was 0.225 million, showing a slight rebound from the previous week's 0.219 million.