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What should the market pay attention to on Trump’s "first day"? This is Morgan Stanley's investor advisory guide.
Morgan Stanley stated that there are two scenarios regarding tariffs: one is a baseline scenario where tariffs are announced quickly but implemented slowly, and the other is a possible accelerated implementation scenario. If the pace of tariff implementation exceeds market expectations, U.S. Treasury yields may rise, and the dollar may appreciate, especially against currencies such as the Canadian dollar and Mexican peso.
What exactly does Trump want to do? The Federal Reserve is also quite troubled!
As Federal Reserve officials rarely achieve their dual mandate, the aggressive Trump will complicate their work.
The "Trump 2.0" storm is coming! Which Industries will take off, and which Industries will encounter a downturn?
Investors are preparing for a major policy shift.
This time is different! Trump is driving the US dollar to continue strengthening!
Since the election, the US dollar has continued to strengthen, and today, after Trump's inauguration, the second phase of the dollar's strength will officially begin.
U.S. Stock Gold Mining | Led by UBS Group! Multiple banking giants in the U.S. stock market hit new highs; join the Spring Festival "gift battle"! JD.com surged over 10% overnight.
It may be acquired by a mysterious buyer! Intel surged more than 9% in the last trading day and continued to rise over 3% in after-hours trading; Credo rose nearly 6%, up more than 19% since early 2025, hitting a record high.
The first speech of Trump's second term has arrived, and Wall Street will closely watch three major events!
Although the inauguration is not the place for the new president to showcase detailed policies, "the market will pay for what it sees."
Trump's inauguration ceremony is being held today: a large number of executive orders are imminent! TikTok shuts down and then restarts.
Trump's inauguration will be held on Monday (January 20). Investors will closely monitor the executive orders signed by Trump after taking office, especially those related to tariffs and corporate policies. These orders may influence the stock market trends in the near future.
Daily Options Tracking | Acquisition rumors resurge! Intel rises over 9%, with two Call orders making ten times profit; MSTR Options trading is booming, with the Call ratio skyrocketing to 71%.
Rumors of acquisition have resurfaced, and Intel rose over 9% last Friday. The Options Volume surged to 0.973 million contracts, nearly tripling from the previous day, with a Call percentage of 73.7% and an implied volatility level of 77.3%.
The key to the stock market's rise and fall: the mystery of Bonds yields and the shockwave from Trump's return.
The rapid rise in Bonds yields has made the stock market extremely precarious, especially with Trump's imminent return to the White House, further amplifying market uncertainty.
The slogan finally arrives at its moment of fulfillment! Is the "Trump Trade" at a new crossroads?
① From the "beautiful aspirations" before the election to the "wanton revelry" after the election, Trump's Trade has gone through two phases over the past six months; ② Now, this Trade's "third phase" may be the most turbulent journey that is about to unfold: with Trump's official inauguration, all of the campaign slogans from last year's USA election winner will soon come to fruition...
Daily Investment Bank/Institution Opinions Overview (2025-01-20)
Citigroup research strategists pointed out in a report that the Bonds market shows greater sensitivity to inflation, with recent risks stemming from Trump's first actions taken after his inauguration as president.
Morgan Stanley's Wilson: Interest rates and the dollar remain the biggest driving forces behind U.S. stocks.
Wilson stated that the strengthening of the dollar has a significant impact on individual stocks, and companies with lower overseas sales exposure and lower sensitivity to the strengthening dollar have started to outperform. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield range of 4.00%-4.50% is the most comfortable range for U.S. stocks, and once the yield falls to this range, the stock market will rebound significantly.
Dow Jones Elliott Wave Technical Analysis [Video]
Are the rate hike advocates still persistent? Even with the rising expectations of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, the Options market continues to see a surge in contrary bets.
According to industry insiders' analysis of the closing data up to last Friday, traders currently believe that the probability of the Federal Reserve's next action being an interest rate hike before the end of the year is about 25%, related to Options linked to the secured overnight financing rate (SOFR).
Key points of Trump's inauguration: for the first time, foreign heads of state were invited to attend, and billionaires and stars gathered.
① The inauguration ceremony of the USA's president-elect Trump is about to officially take place, which is the most crucial part of the power transfer among the leaders of the USA government and is expected to attract Global attention; ② Unlike eight years ago when Trump was first inaugurated, this time there will be many billionaires attending the ceremony, along with several foreign heads of state invited.
USA stock prices have soared compared to Global levels, be cautious of adjustment risks.
The stock prices and earnings performance in the USA are both better than the Global average, although there is earnings support, the stock prices have surged leading to a valuation premium.
The Stock Rally Is Back on Track. Memories of 2022 Linger. -- WSJ
Bank of America: Trump's Trade will protect the US stock market from a sharp decline but will not lead to significant increases.
Bank of America strategists indicated that as investors focus on Trump's protectionist economic agenda and proposals to lower corporate taxes, his return to the White House could protect the U.S. stock market from massive sell-offs.
On the first day of his presidency, Trump may sign over 100 executive orders, which will shake up the financial markets.
① On the day Trump takes office, USA policy will undergo a major transformation, which may have widespread and profound effects on subsequent financial markets; ② The outside world expects him to sign at least 100 executive orders involving multiple areas of market concern.