Is a strong economy becoming a "stumbling block" for the U.S. stock market? The shadow of inflation is looming over Wall Street.
This week's data is likely to intensify Wall Street's concerns...
U.S. stock market opportunities | News of huge mergers brings Bullish sentiment! ITCI soared 34% overnight, and several Medical stocks surged on the news; Oil & Gas prices rose together! The Oil & Gas Sector collectively went up.
A multi-million dollar deal has been signed! The Israeli Ministry of Defense and the defense company Elbit Systems have had a strong start to the year, with overnight stock prices rising nearly 3%, setting new records.
The Federal Reserve is now a 'lame duck.'
For the Federal Reserve, there is currently no compelling reason to move interest rates in either direction.
Daily Options Tracking | Is the "Trump Trade" making a comeback? DJT made a 24-fold profit on a call option; NVIDIA Options trading is experiencing a tug-of-war, with a large investor purchasing nearly 20 million dollars in long-term call options.
Quantum computing stock RGTI dropped over 32% in the previous trading day, with Options Chain Volume slightly rising to 0.37 million contracts, implied volatility soaring to 211%, and the Put ratio at 52.8%. On the Options Chain, the bearish position is the market Block Orders, with the highest volume for the put option set to expire this Friday at a strike price of $6, totaling 0.014 million contracts, and an open interest of 3,700 contracts.
What is the impact of Trump's "gradual" tariff plan on inflation? UBS Group: The Federal Reserve will be in a tricky situation.
Dr. Arend Kapteyn, an executive at UBS Group, stated that Trump's gradual tariff plan will pose challenges for the Federal Reserve as it struggles against inflation; He pointed out that rolling tariffs could lead to a significant rise in peak inflation, making it more difficult for the central bank to respond; Currently, investors are eagerly awaiting the USA's inflation data, which will indicate whether the Federal Reserve will slow its pace of interest rate cuts this year.
Decision Analysis: The global market direction has changed, all because of Trump? The dollar has retreated, awaiting the CPI and Earnings Reports.
On Tuesday (January 14), Asian stock markets showed mixed trends, similar to the trading situation on Wall Street, with recent buy-low efforts standing in contrast to concerns about the Global economic outlook and the potential impact of Trump's second term. The rise of Oil and gas producers helped to offset the impact of declines in the stock prices of NVIDIA and Other large Technology companies.
Retailers are stockpiling in advance, and the surge in imports at USA ports is expected to continue.
With the International Longshore and Warehouse Union and the USA Maritime Alliance reaching a six-year labor agreement, Eastern USA and Gulf of Mexico ports have avoided a potential crisis.
U.S. Futures Rise, European Stocks Mostly Higher
Bank of America issues an urgent warning: Small Cap stocks are facing a crisis! U.S. Treasury yields are soaring, and risks are rapidly increasing.
The Bank of America research team pointed out that as the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike cycle temporarily pauses, the market's attention and volatility surrounding Small Cap stocks continue to rise.
Goldman Strategist Says 2025 Equity Outlook Is Complicated
The CPI "appetizer" is here! The leading Indicator PPI will be announced tonight.
The market focus has shifted to inflation data, but strong non-farm payrolls may strengthen the market's ability to withstand high inflation. How will Gold respond?
What is the likelihood of the USA declaring a national emergency and imposing tariffs?
CITIC SEC believes that Trump may threaten other countries by declaring a national emergency to push the USA towards achieving its political goals, but the probability of this initiative being implemented is relatively low.
Finally, a major institution has stated: interest rate cuts will be a matter for 2024, and now the discussion should focus on "what might cause the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates?"
Bank of America believes that the latest non-farm payroll data indicates that the employment stabilization goal has been achieved, making further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve unnecessary. If the year-on-year growth rate of the core PCE price Index exceeds 3% and long-term inflation expectations become uncontrolled, it will lay the foundation for the Federal Reserve's next interest rate hike.
Goldman Sachs: The California wildfires will have a "moderate drag" on January's non-farm payrolls.
The Goldman Sachs economists expect that the wildfires in California will drag down the USA's non-farm payroll data for January and the GDP for the first quarter.
It is 2025, and this is the Federal Reserve's latest "hawk-dove distribution", showing significant internal divergence.
According to the updated "dove-hawk distribution" chart, the policy inclination of the voting committee in 2025 is similar to that in 2024, with an average score close to neutral policy. However, in 2025, the score differences among committee members are greater than last year. Analysis suggests that this significant divergence in policy inclination may lead to more disagreements within the 2025 committee, especially in light of the changes in trade and immigration policies following Trump's administration, which could have a major impact on the USA supply chain.
Will the US stock market change? The world's largest public Fund: only recommends allocating 38% of the investment portfolio to the stock market.
① The world's largest mutual fund, Vanguard, recently advised that in the face of rising stock prices and the increasingly unlikely expectation of further rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, people should adopt a defensive strategy focused on Bonds. ② Vanguard released a key model that currently calls for financial advisors and certain wealthy individual investors to allocate 38% of their portfolios to Stocks, with the remainder allocated to fixed income Assets.
Traders are gearing up for the largest Earnings Reports day in S&P history, with the stock market expected to fluctuate by 4.7% after the results are announced.
Two days before the USA Earnings Reports cycle begins for large Banks, traders are nervously positioning themselves, preparing for one of the most turbulent profit periods in stock market history.
Futu Morning Report | Major new regulations impact AI Chip stocks! NVIDIA and Oracle strongly oppose; Is there a bet that the yield has peaked? Call Bid in U.S. Treasury ETF surges.
Media: NVIDIA's Blackwell chip rack has encountered issues, leading major customers like Microsoft to reduce some Orders; Trump's advisers have proposed a new tariff idea: use the Emergency Economic Powers Act to increase rates by 2-5% monthly; the new US Treasury Secretary's Hold Positions include the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Bitcoin.
$100 Invested In This Stock 5 Years Ago Would Be Worth This Much Today
Breaking news about Trump! Bloomberg exclusively reveals Trump's team's new tariff proposal.
According to exclusive reports from Bloomberg, members of the economic team of USA President-elect Trump, who is set to take office, are discussing a gradual monthly increase in tariffs to enhance negotiating leverage while helping to avoid soaring inflation. One of the ideas being considered is to develop a progressive tariff schedule that would raise tariffs by about 2% to 5% each month. This plan would also require reliance on the executive powers granted by the International Emergency Economic Powers Act.