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Under the test of stagflation, the central banks of Japan and the United States find it difficult to "turn dovish."
Nomura believes that although market concerns about stagflation in the USA have intensified, coupled with tariffs leading to a pullback in US stocks, this resembles more of a short-term adjustment and will not lead to a significant economic slowdown. It is expected that the Federal Reserve will be relatively unwilling to cut interest rates. As for Japan, the central bank may still maintain its position on raising interest rates. The probability of a rate hike in May is low, while the June meeting may be 'truly active.'
In the first quarter, there was a "style switch" in Global Assets: safe-haven assets stood out, the Hang Seng Tech Index led the major stock indices, and whether U.S. stocks can regain momentum in Q2.
With the closing of the overnight US stock market, the first quarter market has completely ended, and the ranking of Global major Assets has been finalized, with safe-haven Assets standing out, US Treasury prices soaring, and Gold prices reaching new highs.
Daily Options Tracking | Ahead of Tariff Day! SPY implied volatility level has risen to a new high in half a month; bulls dominate the Tesla Options Chain, as Q1 delivery data is about to be announced.
META is up nearly 2%, with the highest Volume for call options expiring this Friday, with exercise prices of $280, $300, $270, and $275.
Safe-haven currencies under market panic: Yen, Swiss Franc, and Gold.
According to data from Deutsche Bank, hedge funds have increased their buying intensity for safe-haven currencies (yen and Swiss franc) in the past two weeks, while real money investors continue to buy Gold in large quantities, the euro maintains a moderate buying trend, and the Inflow of commodity currencies shows a divergent trend.
The Governor of the Bank of Japan warns: Trump's 'reciprocal tariffs' could severely damage global trade and the economy!
① The Governor of the Bank of Japan, Kazuo Ueda, stated that the "reciprocal tariffs" soon to be announced by President Trump of the USA could have a significant impact on global trade and adversely affect Global economic growth; ② Ueda hopes to share views with G20 finance ministers at this month's G20 finance minister meeting in Washington regarding the impact that the USA's tariff increases may have on the Global economy.
This week's non-farm payrolls, sound the alarm for the USA economy?
Citibank stated that against the backdrop of an already turbulent market, particularly after the tariff announcement on April 2, disappointing employment data could become a significant risk-off catalyst. However, if the employment data for March is better than expected, one should not be overly optimistic, as the true peak of weakness in the labor market is likely to appear in June and July.