Who will be the first to implement the expectations of a reserve requirement ratio cut and interest rate reduction? Industry predictions suggest that the likelihood of a reserve requirement ratio cut by the end of the year is high, while the interest rate

① Currently, it has entered the observation period for policy effects, and the signals for reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts are unclear. The probability of an interest rate cut this week is low, but the likelihood of a reserve requirement cut before the end of the year is higher, and the interest rate cut may have to wait until 2025 for a suitable opportunity; ② A domestic interest rate cut may further increase short-term Exchange Rates pressure, and the probability of a short-term reserve requirement cut is greater than that of an interest rate cut. Recently, the Renminbi's exchange rate against the US dollar has declined, reflecting more of a passive depreciation nature.

cls.cnDec 24, 2024 19:01