Market refocuses on usa CPI! Will it determine whether the Fed will hit the "pause button" on rate cuts?
If the September CPI data in the USA is very strong, the rate cut in November will become "uncertain".
"Hot non-farm payroll data suppresses the market's expectation of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve, and the 'global assets pricing anchor' returns to 4%."
The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 50 basis points has plummeted, leading to intensified selling of U.S. Treasury bonds, pushing the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield to break through the important 4% level; the market bets that the interest rate cut before the end of the year will be less than 50 basis points.
Futu Morning Post | Breaking news! The State Council Information Office will hold a press conference at 10 a.m. today, A-shares will open today; join the call on the Chinese stock market! Citigroup: There is still huge room for growth.
Overseas investors are pouring into Chinese stocks, with related funds attracting billions of dollars to set a new record; senior officials of the Federal Reserve temporarily withhold buying, eye-catching non-farm payroll data: overall risk balance slightly leaning towards labor market facing headwinds.
10/8 [Strength and Weakness Analysis]
[Bullish and Bearish Factors] Bullish factors: Nikkei Average is rising (39,332.74, +697.12), US crude oil futures are rising (77.14, +2.76), Expectation of easing inflation in the US, active share buybacks, request from the Tokyo Stock Exchange for enhancing corporate value. Bearish factors: NY Dow is falling (41,954.24, -398.51), Nasdaq Composite Index is falling (17,923.90, -213.94), $1 = 148.00-10 yen, Chicago Nikkei futures are falling (38,915, Osaka comparison -455).
US stocks closed with the three major indices falling by about 1%, while nvidia rose over 2% against the market; Chinese concept stocks index saw a "V"-shaped reversal, with Li Auto rising by over 4%.
The only remaining Wall Street giant Citigroup, which still expects a 50 basis point rate cut in November, has also thrown in the towel. The market has reduced the Fed rate cut expectations to less than 50 basis points by the end of the year.
Express News | The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in November is 86.3%. The probability of not cutting interest rates has risen to 13.7%.