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Express News | The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates unchanged in August is 90.7%.
Gold Price Slumps as US Dollar Soars Amid High US Yields
Gold price slumped more than 0.91% on Wednesday as the Greenback soars, underpinned by high US Treasury yields, ahead of the release of the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index report on Friday. Investors are beginning to price out less easing by the Federal Reserve (Fed), sponsoring the buck’s last leg up. The XAU/USD trades at $2,297 after hitting a daily high of $2,323.
US Dollar Rises to New High, Underpinned by Rising Treasury Yields
Wednesday’s session witnessed the US Dollar, as represented by the Dollar Index (DXY), climb to 106.00, a level last observed in early May.
How long will it take for US inflation to return to 2%? Economist at the Cleveland Fed: if the economy does not decline, it will take another 3 years.
If the improvement of the supply chain no longer drives the decline in inflation, then the only thing that can bring downward pressure is economic recession. And if there is no recession, then more patience is needed, and it will take some time for inflation to return to 2%.
The Fed sticks to its own path, with a strong US dollar leading the global currency market.
Due to market speculation that the Fed's policy will diverge from other central banks, the US dollar index rose to 106 on Wednesday, its first time since May 1. An indicator measuring the strength of the US dollar has risen to its highest level since November last year.
Dollar Soars to Fresh 2024 High as Fed Diverges From Major Peers
A gauge of the dollar’s strength rose to its highest level since November as the first interest-rate reduction from the Federal Reserve appears distant.
Bearish warning for the US stock market: slowing labor market may jeopardize the soft landing and lead to a 10% stock market correction.
FX168 Financial News Agency (Europe) reported on Tuesday (June 25th) that Mike Wilson, Chief Information Officer of Morgan Stanley, stated on Bloomberg Television that the job market can determine the success or failure of the stock market, and any sudden weakness could trigger a meaningful adjustment.
Why Inflation Could Take Several Years to Get Back to 2%
'Left to its own devices without shocks, how fast does inflation move to 2%?' Cleveland Fed economist Randal Verbrugge asks. 'Not very fast.'
Delayed Fed Rate Cut, U.S. Elections Could Prevent Dollar Weakness -- Market Talk
Ebury's expectations for the dollar to fall would be at risk if there are further delays to U.S. interest-rate cuts and if Republican Donald Trump looks set to win this year's U.S. presidential election, Matthew Ryan, head of market strategy, says in Ebury's June outlook.
Former Federal Reserve Economist: Don't be misled by recession indicators!
A former Fed economist pointed out that US inflation will continue to ease, economic growth will continue, and the "roaring 2020s" will still be full of vitality.
"Hawks and doves"! Allianz's chief economic advisor: The Fed should consider cutting interest rates in July, delaying may cause economic risks.
According to Allianz's chief economist, the Federal Reserve should consider cutting interest rates in July, as delaying could pose greater economic risks.
After the chief information officer of Daiwa Securities defected, the first warning was issued: US stocks could still drop by 10%, the key is...
Michael Wilson said that a soft job market could trigger a 10% stock market downturn; He pointed out that if non-farm employment fell below 100,000 people or the unemployment rate exceeded 4.3%, the economic slowdown would be obvious.
U.S. Dollar Expected to Weaken Against Most G-10 Currencies -- Market Talk
Ebury continues to see a mild pullback in the U.S. dollar against all G-10 currencies, save the Swiss franc, Matthew Ryan, head of market strategy, says in Ebury's June outlook.
Bold bets have appeared in the US interest rate options market to hedge against extreme rate cuts.
Traders in the US interest rate options market are making a new bet on the Fed's rate path: a 3-percentage-point rate cut over the next nine months. Now, some are also increasing their bets to hedge against the consequences of tail risks, such as sudden and extreme rate cuts. The risk of a sudden economic recession in the United States still exists.
The strength of the USD is once again affecting emerging markets! Latin American currencies are leading the decline, as the USD index aims for a new high this year.
The currencies of emerging markets seem to be falling freely, despite relatively weak US economic data, traders are still flocking to the traditional safe-haven asset of the US dollar.
16 Nobel laureates issue a strong warning: if Trump comes to power, he will reignite inflation in the United States.
16 Nobel laureates in economics jointly signed an open letter that shook the US political arena. They jointly warned that if Trump wins the US presidential election in November this year, it will exacerbate inflation in the United States; regarding this heavyweight letter, the Trump team strongly opposed it, claiming that these Nobel laureates are "out of touch with reality".
To hedge against economic recession risks, the options market predicts that the Federal Reserve will significantly cut interest rates by 300 basis points within a year.
Unless the economy of the USA suddenly enters into a recession, this result seems unlikely to occur.
Possible rate cuts? Federal Reserve Board member Cook: Inflation control has seen the dawn.
Cook believes that as major progress is made on the inflation issue and the labor market cools off, it is appropriate to reduce policy restrictions at some point to maintain a healthy balance in the economy. Next year, inflation will further slow down: housing service inflation will decline; core commodity inflation will remain slightly negative; core service inflation will slow down over time.
A "big eagle" has taken off! A member of the Federal Reserve said that interest rates will not be lowered this year, while another is concerned about rising inflation expectations.
Baumann stated on Tuesday at a policy exchange think tank event in London that it is expected that there will be no interest rate cuts before the end of this year.
Express News | Trader boldly bets that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates 12 times before March next year.