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The 'Trump trade' of the 2016 version completely reversed afterwards, what about this time?
After Trump's election victory, the US dollar, US stocks, and small cap stocks usually tend to strengthen. However, during Trump 1.0, from 2016 to 2020, the US dollar and small cap stocks performed poorly, failing to rise as expected, while the rise in US stocks was mostly attributable to the strength of technology stocks. Analysis suggests that the 'Trump trade' is not the same as 'Trump investment', it is more of a short-term market reaction rather than a long-term trend.
"How long can the Trump trade continue?"
Compared to other presidential candidates, the impact of Trump's victory is unique, but Wall Street should also be wary of the fading of this effect.
"Trump trade" remains popular, but how much longer can it last.
Stocks, bonds, and other assets are already expensive relative to historical levels. Trump's trade protectionism policy may lead to a resurgence of inflation and force the Federal Reserve to maintain interest rates at high levels for a longer period of time. In addition, the US economy is facing continuously expanding fiscal deficits and a labor market that is already showing signs of fatigue, which could put pressure on the economic growth outlook.
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"Trump trade" may have been thoroughly priced! The question now arises.
Some analysts are worried that the market is currently rising prematurely, and a "rebound" may be just around the corner.
Summers, who criticized the last round of inflation in the usa, stated that Trump will trigger an "inflation crisis not seen in decades."
Summers warned that if Trump insists on fulfilling the promises made during his campaign, the usa will suffer a more severe inflation shock than in 2021. It is hoped that Trump can learn from this term and adjust his plans to avoid causing inflation.
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On Tuesday, the European and American stock markets experienced a significant decline, with the US stocks ending their previous rising trend, and all three major indices falling together, while major stock indices in Europe fell across the board.
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