As US bond yields soar, how much longer can the US stock market party last?
Currently, there are no signs of a bear market in the US stock market, but the surging yields on US Treasury bonds may become a turning point for the situation. Bank of America Merrill Lynch states that when the 10-year US Treasury yield exceeds 5%, investors tend to shift from the stock market to the bond market, limiting the rise of US stocks. This yield has climbed by 80 basis points since mid-September, although the bank indicates that the current interest rate risk is manageable.
Will Trump's presidency lead to a resurgence of inflation in the USA? Charles Schwab: Investors should be wary of four major signs.
①Charles Schwab strategists predict that although overall inflation in the USA is cooling down, the downward path will be "volatile"; ②They point out that there are four major signs that may indicate intensifying inflationary pressures in the economy, and investors need to be cautious.
The second largest net inflow of capital since 2008! Investors go all in on US stocks
According to EPFR data, in the week up to last Wednesday, US stock etf and mutual funds attracted nearly 56 billion dollars in inflow, marking the second largest weekly inflow record since 2008. These funds have attracted inflow for seven consecutive months, marking the longest duration since 2021.
From "Trump frenzy" to concern: The prospect of a "soft landing" for the US economy is being threatened!
① Nobel laureate in economics Joseph Stiglitz indicated that the usa is experiencing a soft landing, but Trump's policies may end this situation; ② Goldman Sachs chief economist Jan Hatzius pointed out that broad imposition of high tariffs could severely impact economic growth; ③ Chief global economist Jennifer McKeown from Capital Economics acknowledged the upward risks of inflation.
Investors are betting on a rise in US stocks! Analysts warn: the market is dangerously optimistic.
The animal spirits of U.S. stock investors are exceptionally active, but analysts indicate that the "market has become very expensive."
China International Capital Corporation: Trump 2.0 accelerates economic recovery, with ckh holdings and small cap styles favored.
The recovery of the fundamentals will continue to drive the cyclical sectors such as discretionary consumer goods, capital goods, and raw materials, and before the implementation of Trump's tariffs, it will be bullish for the relevant domestic export sectors (seizing exports).