"Global Asset Pricing Anchor" surges! Morgan Stanley warns that U.S. stocks are about to face a tough time.
According to Morgan Stanley, due to the surge in USA Treasury yields and inflation concerns leading to the rise of the dollar, the USA stock market may face a difficult period in the next six months.
U.S. Stock Market Outlook | The three major Futures indices are rising, with Nasdaq Futures up over 1%. AI chip stocks and Robot Concept are strong in pre-market trading, Taiwan Semiconductor is up nearly 5% hitting a new high, and KITT surged over 60%.
Goldman Sachs: Currently expected that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 75 basis points this year, lower than the previously expected 100 basis points; Trump 2.0 raises inflation concerns, traders are Bearish on this year's USA bond market outlook; two Federal Reserve officials have expressed hawkish views: the fight against inflation has not yet achieved victory.
Will Trump's policies trigger inflation in the USA? Former FED Chairman Bernanke: The impact is limited.
① Investors are concerned that Trump's proposed policies will ignite inflation in the USA and disrupt the Federal Reserve's interest rate-cutting process; ② In the view of former Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke, Trump's policies will not lead to a fundamental change in inflation in the USA.
The USA stock market struggles to stop falling, the employment report becomes a highlight, and Technology stocks face an important week: get the early insight on this week's economic data.
In the first week of 2025, the stock market in the USA has been experiencing a significant decline.
Daily Options Tracking | USA Electric Vehicle stocks soared! Tesla jumped over 8% last Friday, with a large investor betting 14 million dollars on the upside; Tesla's rival Rivian surged 24%, with several call options expiring this Friday earning more tha
NVIDIA surged over 4% last Friday, with several out-of-the-money Call Options expiring this Friday making more than 1.5 times the investment.
The U.S. Supreme Court overturned a 40-year precedent; is it now harder for Trump to boost the U.S. stock market?
A recent ruling by the Supreme Court may slow down the Trump administration's plans to ease regulations, which could disappoint the stock market.
Wind and snow won't stop! The USA Congress is about to officially confirm Trump's election as president.
① On Monday, eastern time, the USA faced a large-scale snowstorm, but Congress will hold a meeting as scheduled to confirm Trump's election as president; ② Republican House Speaker Mike Johnson stated that regardless of the weather, voting will take place at 1 PM on January 6; ③ The Capitol riot on January 6, 2020, is not expected to be repeated in this election, as Biden and the Democrats have stated they will respect the election results and push for congressional certification.
Express News | Goldman Sachs: Expects the S&P 500 Index to rise to 6,500 points by the end of the year.
UBS Group: The USA remains the safest region for dividends, with an expected dividend cut probability of 6.2%.
On January 6, Glonghui reported that UBS Group predicts a 22.9% probability of dividend cuts across Global regions and Industries, but the USA remains the safest region for dividends, with an expected probability of 6.2% for dividend cuts. The bank stated that most Industries in the USA appear relatively safe. However, Japan is considered the preferred region for dividend growth, with an expected growth rate of 9.9%. The bank recommended Exxon Mobil, citing its dividend yield of 3.7%, returning 9.8 billion dollars to Shareholders in the third quarter, and increasing the fourth quarter dividend to 0.99 dollars per share. Although the stock performance last year lagged behind the market, a slight increase was still recorded.
The first "non-farm payroll super week" of the New Year: Is Wall Street ready?
① Wall Street traders will focus on the first non-farm night of the new year, hoping that Friday's December non-farm report can show that the USA job market is stable without overheating, thereby supporting expectations for a rise in the stock market in 2025; ② In addition, the release of the Federal Reserve minutes and speeches from several Federal Reserve officials are also expected to attract attention this week.
The theory of American exceptionalism is expected to continue driving US stocks and the dollar in 2025.
Respondents believe that Trump's policies will drive economic growth in the USA, with the US stock market and the dollar being the biggest beneficiaries, but differing opinions highlight that Trump's established policies are expected to have a double-edged effect on the economy and the market.
Futu Morning Report | The "Spring Festival Gala of the Technology Industry" CES 2025 is coming this week! NVIDIA has become the market focus; big investment! Microsoft plans to invest 80 billion USD to build Datacenters.
CES will kick off from January 7 to 11 in the USA, Las Vegas. NVIDIA is expected to announce its latest developments in AI, including the highly anticipated GeForce RTX 50 graphics card; in the Industry sector, AI and Autos are expected to continue thriving, while Siasun Robot&Automation, displays, and smart home appliances are also focal points of attention.
The US stock market starts off tumultuous in 2025. Will the "January effect" reappear?
A popular theory suggests that the USA stock market often sees higher gains in January compared to other months.
Institutions: Who will cool down the "epic rise" of the dollar?
How much longer can the dollar rise? Is Trump really "not worried"?
Two senior officials from the Federal Reserve emphasized that the battle against inflation has not yet been won.
Federal Reserve Governor Waller and San Francisco Fed President Daly stated that the 2% inflation target must be achieved, while also continuing to pay attention to the state of the labor market.
A week ahead | Major economic data from China and the United States is coming one after another! The Federal Reserve's meeting minutes and strong non-farm payrolls are on the way; focusing on the 2025 CES Consumer Electronics Show, the U.S. stock market w
At the beginning of the New Year, the Hong Kong IPO market is thriving, with eight new stocks being offered across the year-end, including Bruker, Conch Materials, Saimo Technology, and Yibin Banks.
The "January effect" in the U.S. stock market: Truth or myth?
The data supports this strategy, but also indicates that its effectiveness has weakened in recent years. As for 2025, the driving factors behind last year's high returns in the U.S. stock market still exist, but there are also some concerns.
The first Federal Reserve official this year stated: it is difficult to determine the impact of Trump's policies, and MMF policy will depend on economic data.
Federal Reserve Board member Kugler stated, "There is a view that we can slow down and adopt a more gradual approach" while observing data to determine whether stubborn inflationary pressures will begin to ease again. She also mentioned that the current economic situation is good, and although the job market has cooled somewhat, it remains resilient with the unemployment rate at historically low levels.
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