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U.S. stock market morning | The three major Indexes are collectively rising, Broadcom surged nearly 9%, Tesla and Google both hit historical highs; Cryptos Concept stocks are strongly rising, MARA climbed nearly 7%, Coinbase rose nearly 4%.
On the evening of the 16th in Beijing time, several central banks will hold meetings this week and a large amount of important economic data will be released. Investors will focus on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting in December.
U.S. Stock Outlook | Three major futures indexes rose collectively, with Tesla pre-market up nearly 1%, poised to set a historical high at the open; Goldman Sachs: The Federal Reserve will "skip" a rate cut in January, and may signal a slowdown in easing
Super Micro Computer fell nearly 14% before the market and was removed from the NASDAQ 100 Index component; Broadcom continues to rise 3% before the market, as Bank of America raised the Target Price to $250.
Annual Outlook | 7100 points! Wall Street refreshes the Target Price for the S&P, is a bull market in US stocks continuing in 2025?
Overall, major banks are optimistic, with the highest target for the S&P reaching 7,100 points, while the average target point according to Bloomberg Statistics is 6,496.17 points, indicating more than a 7% upside potential from the current latest closing price; many bears have flipped their positions, and only two Institutions remain cautious about the direction of the U.S. stock market.
Wall Street tycoons shout: The FED's "triple cut" this week is not unexpected, but the easing cycle will pause here!
①This Thursday morning, the Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision, and Wall Street widely expects a 25 basis point rate cut, achieving a "three consecutive reductions." ②Krishna Guha, Vice Director of Evercore ISI, stated, "The December FOMC meeting will mark the end of the first phase of the Federal Reserve's rate cut cycle."
There are significant differences in policy viewpoints within Trump's cabinet. Will market pricing undergo major changes?
Investors should pay attention to the policy risks of Trump 2.0.
Daily Options Tracking | Entering the trillion-dollar Market Cap club! After Broadcom's earnings report, multiple call contracts earned over 10 times profit; is Bitcoin aiming for the $0.11 million mark? MSTR's implied volatility rose to 112% last Friday.
SoundHound AI rose over 23% on the previous trading day, with the Call ratio increasing to 71%, and the Options Chain volume increasing by 2.77 times to 0.525 million contracts. On the Options Chain, bulls are the market Block Orders, with the highest Call volume for this Friday's expiration at strike prices of $20 and $10, respectively 0.024 million and 18,000 contracts.
The "New Federal Reserve News Agency": After another rate cut this week, the Federal Reserve is ready to slow down or even stop cutting rates.
Nick Timiraos stated that one of the choices for the Federal Reserve this week is to cut interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point, and then strongly hint at slowing the pace of rate cuts using new economic forecasts. Facing differing opinions internally, Powell must balance policy adjustments.
Is there another reason to be Bullish on ASIC? The second half of the computing power war has begun, and the era of AI reasoning may be approaching.
① Ilya Sutskever, co-founder of OpenAI, pointed out that data resources are running low, and the next generation of AI models will be true AI Agents with reasoning capabilities. ② The o1 model recently released by OpenAI has a standout performance characteristic of "capable of reasoning and thinking." ③ The demand for reasoning calculations can even reach 4.5 times that of training calculations, and customized ASIC chips are expected to rise.
Futu Morning News | Ready for the "Federal Reserve Decision Day"! More than 20 central banks from various countries will hold meetings this week; the adjustment of Nasdaq 100 constituents will take effect next week! Palantir and MSTR have been included.
This week's highlights from the Federal Reserve: There's no doubt about a rate cut in December, but January remains uncertain; Tesla's stock rose over 4% to a new high, and reports indicate that Trump's team is seeking to abolish the requirement for accident reports for autonomous vehicles.
Super central bank week! China is about to announce multiple economic data for November, will the central bank soon lower the reserve requirement ratio?
More than 20 central banks, including the Federal Reserve, the Bank of England, and the Bank of Japan, will successively announce their interest rate decisions. In addition to the interest rate resolution in the USA, China's November economic data is also being closely monitored by the Capital Markets.
Weekly Outlook | The Federal Reserve takes the lead as the last "Central Bank Super Week" of the year is approaching; China's economic data for November and important inflation data from the USA will soon be revealed.
Currently, the market widely anticipates that the Federal Reserve has a high probability of lowering interest rates by 25 basis points in December, reaching as high as 97%. However, due to stronger data in November, the risk of the Federal Reserve pausing interest rate cuts in early 2025 has increased, making Powell's post-meeting remarks and the latest economic forecasts crucial.
Next week will be the last "Central Bank Super Week" of this year, and 24-hour traders will have to work non-stop.
Next Wednesday, the Federal Reserve will hold its last interest rate decision meeting of the year, followed by Japan, Nordic countries, the United Kingdom... By the close of business next Friday, at least 22 central banks globally will announce their interest rate decisions, representing a total of two-fifths of the global economy.
Top 20 by transaction amount | Tesla's stock price has reached a historic high, with a cumulative increase of nearly 80% since the election; Broadcom surged 24% after earnings, with a Market Cap surpassing 1 trillion USD.
On Friday, the first in U.S. stock trading volume was Tesla, which rose 4.34%, reaching a historical high price, with a trading volume of 38.132 billion USD; the second was NVIDIA, which fell 2.25%, with a trading volume of 31.251 billion USD; the third was Broadcom, which rose 24.43%, with a trading volume of 26.607 billion USD, and its Market Cap surpassed 1 trillion USD.
U.S. stock market close | The Nasdaq 100 has risen for four consecutive weeks, Tesla's stock increased by over 4% reaching a new historical high, Broadcom surged over 24% after earnings with a market cap surpassing one trillion dollars.
The three major U.S. stock indexes closed mixed, with the Dow Jones falling for the seventh consecutive Trade day, marking the longest losing streak since 2020, as investors expect the Federal Reserve to slow the pace of interest rate cuts next week.
U.S. stock market early session | The Nasdaq rose slightly, reaching a new high during the session! Most Cryptos concept stocks increased, with RIOT rising by 6%.
On the evening of the 13th in Peking, the US stock market opened higher on Friday. After Broadcom released its Earnings Reports, its stock price surged, leading to a widespread increase in Technology stocks. The USA's import price Index for November was higher than expected. The market focus shifts to next week's Federal Reserve meeting.
The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut next week seems very likely! The market is focusing on the latest economic forecast.
Investors generally believe that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points at the meeting on December 17-18, and will focus more on the new economic forecasts released by decision-makers at the same time they make their decision.
Trump discusses the possibility of war between the US and Iran: anything is possible, the situation is very unstable.
① The elected President Trump of the USA stated in a recent interview that he does not rule out the possibility of war between the USA and Iran; ② According to previous media reports, Trump will continue to exert maximum pressure on Iran during his second term.
US Stock Outlook | Is the unemployment rate in the USA showing warning signs? Societe Generale warns: there will be a risk of recession next year; AI chip stocks are soaring in pre-market, Broadcom has risen over 17% after earnings.
Meta has released a new AI model that will enhance the Metaverse experience; with multiple Bullish factors combined, Taiwan Semiconductor rose over 2% in pre-market trading; Eli Lilly and Co's Mounjaro has replaced Novo-Nordisk A/S's Wegovy, becoming the new favorite weight loss drug in the United Kingdom.
Daily Options Tracking | Broadcom surged over 14% before the market opens! Multiple Call orders are being placed in advance; the popularity of the Bitcoin mining company RIOT suddenly increased! The Options market is bullish up to 20 dollars.
Overnight, the Nasdaq fell from its historical Top Reversal, and major Technology stocks in the US generally declined, with a decrease in trading activity in the Options Chain. NVIDIA dropped over 1%, with Options Volume falling to 2.7 million contracts, while the Call ratio slightly decreased to 66.6%. On the Options Chain, the Calls expiring today with strike prices of $140/$138/$137 were the most popular, each with a Volume of over 0.11 million contracts.
Can global central banks transition from draining to releasing liquidity, allowing the stock market to surge again?
If the drying up of liquidity has not posed a significant obstacle to the market this year, will the improvement of liquidity next year become a tailwind for driving the market?