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usa's October PCE inflation slightly rebounded! But the market still expects the Fed to cut interest rates again in December.
The market expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates again in 2024. According to CME Group's Federal Reserve Watch tool, the market anticipates a 67% chance of a rate cut at the December meeting.
Express News | In October, the core PCE price index in the usa increased by 2.8% year-on-year, marking the largest increase since April 2024.
J.P. Morgan: The usa stock market will maintain its global dominance and continue to outperform other markets.
Since the beginning of this year, driven by the technology and ai boom, the usa stock market has continued to outperform the international stock market. At the same time, the us economy remains resilient, as the Federal Reserve has entered a rate-cutting cycle against the backdrop of declining inflation.
Express News | The annualized quarterly growth rate of the usa's real GDP for the third quarter was revised to 2.8%, in line with expectations.
Express News | The initial jobless claims in the usa for the week ending November 23 were 0.213 million, lower than the market expectation of 0.216 million people.
Bull market continues! Morgan Stanley looks at the US stock market in 2025: reaching 6,500 points by the end of next year, with high-quality cyclical stocks as the top choice.
Daiwa believes that the s&p 500, represented by high-quality stocks, will benefit from the Fed's rate cut cycle, stabilization of business indicators, policy mix, and uncertainty in economic data. However, considering that specific policies have not yet been introduced, U.S. stocks have been severely overbought, and next year's market is unlikely to "rise in a straight line," the key will be to see the Trump administration's measures in cutting fiscal spending.
Express News | France's five-year credit default swap surged to 38 basis points, the highest level since late June - s&p global market intelligence.
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Daiwa's outlook for the US economy in 2025: the era of 'high inflation, slow growth' is coming, interest rate cuts entering the 'slow lane'.
Morgan Stanley believes that Trump's immigration and tariff policies will lead the usa economy to face the dual challenges of slowing growth and persistent inflation next year: GDP growth is expected to slow to 1.9%, while core PCE inflation will remain high at 2.5%. The Federal Reserve will remain cautious about the interest rate path and is expected to begin to pause interest rate cuts in the second quarter of next year.
The Federal Reserve meeting minutes are coming tonight, focusing on three major issues!
According to recent public statements from some policymakers, their reassessment of the prospects for interest rate cuts is mainly influenced by three issues.
The Federal Reserve meeting minutes and PCE price index are coming one after another! They may provide the latest clues for the market regarding interest rate cuts.
According to cme's 'Fed Watch', the probability of the Fed keeping the current interest rate unchanged until December is 44.1%, while the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 55.9%.
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Express News | S&P: The tariff increase in the usa may only cause the Eurozone's economic growth to decrease by 0.2%.
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