All predictions are wrong! The movement of 7 trillion US dollars has caused a significant drop in Wall Street.
Wall Street analysts have previously stated that all the factors, including the Fed's rate cut, resulting in the rise of stocks and bonds markets, are in place, which will prompt investors to withdraw cash on a large scale from money market funds.
The 'Trump trade' of the 2016 version completely reversed afterwards, what about this time?
After Trump's election victory, the US dollar, US stocks, and small cap stocks usually tend to strengthen. However, during Trump 1.0, from 2016 to 2020, the US dollar and small cap stocks performed poorly, failing to rise as expected, while the rise in US stocks was mostly attributable to the strength of technology stocks. Analysis suggests that the 'Trump trade' is not the same as 'Trump investment', it is more of a short-term market reaction rather than a long-term trend.
Be cautious! A new wave of inflation may be on the way.
Greenlight Capital's President David Einhorn expressed that the election results are good for avoiding the political stability issues he was worried about not long ago. However, in terms of the economy, he expects that Trump's second term policies will bring about higher inflation, thus leading to a bigger problem.
Is the feast of the US stock market coming to an end? US economists warn: the three major upward drivers are losing momentum.
The main driving force behind the continued rise in US stocks is nearing exhaustion, indicating that the future return on investment in US stocks will decrease significantly - this is the view of the well-known American economist David Rosenberg. Rosenberg pays special attention to factors such as recent valuations, interest rates, and room for tax cuts, believing that the 'momentum driving the rise in US stocks is almost gone.'
Top economists: The three major driving forces behind the bull market in U.S. stocks are running out.
American economist Rosenberg pointed out that since the most important bullish factors in the US stock market have reached extremes, there may be a period of limited returns in the future.
J.P. Morgan strategists: The year 2025 is full of uncertainties, and the Federal Reserve may pause interest rate cuts!
①jpmorgan market strategist Karen Ward expects the Federal Reserve to pause after the rate cut in December to assess the impact of Trump's policies on the economy. ②Federal Reserve Chairman Powell also stated in his latest speech that the US economy is strong, no need for immediate rate cuts, and will carefully monitor inflation indicators.