Is it stable? The probability of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates next month has reached 80%.
① Last night, the completely market-expected usa October CPI data did not cause much of a stir in the market; ② However, the data performance still boosted market confidence in the Fed's interest rate cut next month, and stimulated a rebound in short-term US government bonds.
Where is the end point of this round of Fed rate cuts? Goldman Sachs: Around 3.25-3.5%, 100 basis points higher than the peak of the previous cycle.
Goldman Sachs pointed out that there are two main reasons for the adjustment of the neutral rate, including the rise in interest rates in the bonds market and the updated estimates of the neutral rate by economic models. Furthermore, the adjustment is also supported by current strong fiscal spending and non-monetary policy factors such as risk appetite.
Former US Treasury Secretary warns Trump: Do not fulfill campaign promises, or else face inflationary impact.
Summers stated that if Trump fulfills his campaign promises, inflation will be even worse than when it reached a 40-year high last time.
Is it time to cool down the 'Trump trade'? Hedge fund big shots: US stocks won't skyrocket!
① Nielsen Peltz, the CEO of the hedge fund company Trian Partners and billionaire investor, is confident about the incoming Trump administration; however, he believes that the stock market rebound will not last. ② Peltz stated in an interview on Wednesday that investors are caught up in speculation and the market will gradually cool down.
Bank of America survey: After Trump's victory, U.S. stocks are expected to be the best assets in 2025!
① A Bank of America survey shows that fund managers expect that us stocks will become the best performing assets next year, driven by the business-friendly policies of the Trump administration; ② They also expect that the small cap index Russell 2000 will perform the best next year, as its lack of international exposure minimizes the risk of increased overall import tariffs.
Risk ignored by US stocks? JPMorgan Asset Management: Trump's tariff plan may trigger stagflation issues.
David Kelly, Chief Global Market Strategist at jpmorgan asset management, stated that Trump's radical tariff plan could slow down the global economy and pose upward pressure on inflation in the usa.